A Q&A with Fiona Hill
On March 15-17, Russia held its first presidential elections since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. As expected, Vladimir Putin was renewed for another six-year term. We talked to Russia expert and Brookings Senior Fellow Fiona Hill about what the election means and why we should pay attention.
While the outcome of the Russian election was predictable, why does it still matter?
Elections are still a constitutional feature of the Russian political system and now function like a plebiscite on Putin’s rule and as the re-legitimation of the system he has created. Behind the scenes and beyond all the manipulation, this election is a way for Putin and the Kremlin to judge his popularity and assess where there might be problems. Elections help to flush out opposition—in this case to the war in Ukraine as well as to Putin and the system. Now that the election is over and his position is shored up again, Putin will feel he has a free hand to tackle this opposition, at home as well as abroad.
Before his death in prison, opposition leader Alexei Navalny called for Russians to gather at the polls at noon on March 17 to protest against Putin. How did this call to action play out?
Given the long lines outside Russian embassies abroad, as well as at polling stations in some big Russian cities in this timeframe, it is clear that Navalny’s appeal gained a significant response. This may be highly symbolic, but it was also acknowledged by some Kremlin commentators. The turnout underscored that Russia’s public is not a monolith. Despite the heavy repression, thousands of people are still willing to risk personal liberty to express their dissatisfaction with Putin. This means the Kremlin cannot take anything for granted over the longer term even if they seem to have crushed political dissent for now.
With this win, Putin is on track to become the longest-serving leader in Russia since Catherine the Great. How does the Russian public feel about Putin, his consolidation of power, and his legacy?
It’s hard to judge if a majority of the Russian population genuinely appreciates Putin’s consolidation of personalized power, which has come at a heavy cost to political freedoms. Prior to the annexation of Crimea in 2014, Putin might have been remembered for stabilizing the Russian state, for restoring its economy, and for giving the Russian population their best shot at prosperity in centuries. But since the full-on invasion of Ukraine, Putin has jettisoned this set of achievements in favor of restoring “lost” Russian lands and Russia’s international position as an old style Great Power. At this juncture, coming out of the election, Putin sees himself as one of the “Greats” of Russian history. If he stays on for another term to 2036 he will also have outlasted both Soviet leader Josef Stalin and Catherine the Great. But Putin has put a lot of things into motion with the war in Ukraine that he cannot completely control. There have been upsurges of political discontent at multiple points over the course of his previous presidential terms. Time will tell how the public feels about his political longevity.
