How to rightsize the China challenge, Chinese analysts' pessimism for Trump's second term, and the potential for U.S.-China collaboration.
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Brookings John L. Thornton China Center

February 3, 2025

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Can Trump seize the moment on China?

 

President Donald Trump has an opportunity to rebalance global economic activity and assert U.S. leadership, but his success will depend on whether he can coalesce his administration behind a clear, goal-oriented China policy. Ryan Hass recommends how Trump could achieve success in deterring U.S.-China conflict, rebalancing the global economy, and generating more opportunities for American workers.

 

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đź’ˇ Explore additional work from "The future of U.S.-China policy" series below.

Trump's second trade war will put US-China relations to the test

 

Donald Trump’s return to power with a Republican-controlled Congress in 2025 cements his dominance in U.S. politics. Jonathan Czin argues that while Trump appears open to a trade deal with China, the scale and intensity of the impending second trade war will hinge on Beijing’s response. Czin warns of the risk of a potential "grand bargain" undermining U.S. strategic interests.

 

Read in East Asia Forum

Know your rival, know yourself: Rightsizing the China challenge

 

Despite recurring anxieties, the United States retains a vital edge over China in economic dynamism, global influence, and technological innovation. Ryan Hass and Jude Blanchette argue that while China has made impressive advances, its internal structural challenges hold it back, and the real risk for the U.S. is failing to capitalize on its own strengths. 

 

Read in Foreign Affairs

Advancing U.S.-China coordination amid strategic competition: An emerging playbook

 

Since 2022, the CSIS Freeman Chair and Brookings China Center have explored historic case studies of great power competition to identify ways for the U.S. and China to collaborate now on shared global challenges despite their intensifying competition. Ryan Hass, Ryan McElveen, and Lily McElwee argue that it would be well within historic precedent for the U.S. and China to pursue mutually self-interested coordination on common challenges such as public health, climate change, and food security.

 

Read in CSIS

 

US-China policy recommendations for the incoming administration

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The Brookings China Center has launched a new series: "The future of U.S.-China policy: Recommendations for the incoming administration." In January, as part of the series:
  • Samantha Gross and Louison Sall analyze the differences between China's and the U.S.'s energy systems and contend that the Trump administration has an opportunity to strengthen American competitiveness by supporting its clean energy sector.
  • Jeffrey Ball explores how Donald Trump, despite his skepticism toward climate change, could leverage his dealmaking instincts to position the United States as a competitive force against China in the global low-carbon technology market.
 

Past events

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Ryan Hass, Samantha Gross, Jeffrey Ball, and R. David Edelman

How will AI impact security relations between the United States and China? U.S. and Chinese perspectives. On January 10, the Brookings China Center and Tsinghua University Center for International Security and Strategy co-hosted a panel discussion with U.S. and Chinese experts on how AI will influence national security issues facing both countries. Colin Kahl and Andrew Forrest provided welcoming remarks, followed by a discussion moderated by Ryan Hass with experts Ting Dong, Chuanying Lu, Qian Xiao, Chris Meserole, and Jacquelyn Schneider.

 

U.S.-China climate relations: Innovation, competition, and global implications. On January 13, the Brookings China Center hosted a high-level discussion on the evolving dynamics of U.S.-China relations on climate change and green technology. The event featured a panel moderated by Ryan Hass with scholars Jeffrey Ball, R. David Edelman, and Samantha Gross. This event was featured in the Institute for Supply Management.

 

More research and commentary

 

The U.S.-South Korea alliance and South Korea-China relations. Ryan Hass contributed to a written exchange on the direction of South Korea's relations with the U.S. and China and the implications of North Korea-Russia ties for the U.S.-South Korea alliance. 

 

Chinese perspectives on Trump 2.0. Xie Tao wrote a commentary for Global China's Lost in Translation series on how Chinese analysts are overwhelmingly pessimistic about U.S.-China relations, given Trump's past trade war, sanctions, and hardline advisors. 

 

Trump's working-class agenda and foreign investment. Mary Gallagher wrote a column for World Politics Review examining whether Trump can attract more foreign investment into the U.S. by convincing the U.S. labor movement that it serves their interests.

 

Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment and arrest. Diana Fu wrote an article for The Medium Canada analyzing the fallout of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol's failed martial law declaration.

 

The downsides of Trump's trade war. Mary Gallagher wrote a column for World Politics Review on how China will benefit as Trump pursues a more protectionist trade policy.

 

Maintaining U.S.-China scientific collaboration. Lan Xue co-authored an article for Nature on how U.S. and Chinese researchers and scientists can sustain collaboration despite worsening relations. 

 

Xi Jinping's foreign policy. Jon Czin was interviewed by the Economist's Drum Tower podcast on Xi Jinping's driving ideology behind his foreign policy.

 

Social movements in China and diaspora politics. Diana Fu was interviewed by Elizabeth Economy for the podcast China Considered on activism in China and how Xi Jinping governs China's global diaspora. 

 

Quad coordination and Indo-Pacific Security. Susan Thornton was interviewed for the National Committee on American Foreign Policy's Emerging Leaders Podcast Series on South Korea's engagement with the Quad Security Dialogue.

 

About the China Center at Brookings

 

The John L. Thornton China Center develops timely, independent analysis and policy recommendations to address long-standing challenges related to U.S.-China relations and China's development.

 
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