Why Trump will need to call Xi first, RMB's undervaluation despite depreciation pressures, and advances in China's private economy legal infrastructure.
China is unlikely to initiate negotiations to de-escalate the U.S.-China trade war, argues Ryan Hass. Beijing believes it can afford patience and has the political leverage to outlast Trump, so if there is going to be a climb down, Trump will need to open the door and define the terms for negotiations.
Jon Czin interviews new non-resident senior fellow John Culver on his assessment of the PLA's modernization, the U.S. policy response, and common blind spots in PLA analysis by outside observers. Drawing from his distinguished career in government, Culver provides a synopsis of the PLA's greatest weaknesses and strengths.
Using the IMF's macro-balance approach, Robin Brooks estimates that China’s renminbi (RMB) is substantially undervalued—by more than 10% to 20%—despite conventional views that it faces depreciation pressure. Persistent large trade surpluses, exchange rate manipulation through state banks, and the RMB’s relative stability against the dollar suggest the undervaluation is worsening.
Jamie Horsley assesses the draft of China's Private Economy Promotion Law, which signals the party's determination to promote the private sector as China struggles to attract private investment. Horsley finds that although the law attempts to address discrimination and irregular enforcement, it also reveals the party's wariness toward private actors compared to the public economy.
The Brookings delegation poses on Shanghai's Bund.
From April 1 to April 8, a Brookings delegation, including Suzanne Maloney, Ryan Hass, Margaret Pearson, Patricia Kim, Jon Czin, Ryan McElveen, and Allie Matthias visited Beijing, Shanghai, and Hangzhou as part of a China Study Tour with several Brookings supporters. The delegation held meetings with the U.S. Embassy in Beijing, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the CCP International Department, Tsinghua University, NYU Shanghai, members of the foreign press corps, domestic and multinational corporations, and city leaders, as well as explored each city's cultural and geopolitical significance.
The delegation held a roundtable dinner with foreign correspondents and think tank scholars in Shanghai and visited the Schwarzman College at Tsinghua University in Beijing.
More research and commentary
Trump’s tariffs and China’s global opportunity.Mary Gallagher wrote a column for World Politics Review on how Trump’s erratic tariff policy can allow China to portray itself as a stabilizing global power.
Taiwan domestic politics.Ryan Hass wrote a column for Taipei Times on the imperativeness of Taiwan's leaders finding points of convergence in its domestic politics in this moment of global flux.
Republican divisions in the US-China trade war. Mary Gallagher published a column for World Politics Review on how a solution to the trade war will reveal a balance in influence between China hawks and the business communities in Trump's own party.
Canada’s foreign interference challenge under Trump.Diana Fu wrote an article with Emile Dirks for the Asia Pacific Society of Canada on how Canada must strengthen its own democratic infrastructure and civil society partnerships as the U.S. pulls back from its liberal-minded engagements.
South Korea and Taiwan's view of its U.S. partnership. Lev Nachman, Hannah June Kim, and Wei-Ting Yen analyzed recent public opinion polls of Taiwan and South Korea since the start of the Trump administration and find that the U.S. is seen as a less reliable partner across almost all measures.
About the China Center at Brookings
The John L. Thornton China Center develops timely, independent analysis and policy recommendations to address long-standing challenges related to U.S.-China relations and China's development.
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