March 2, 2026

America’s narrative on Taiwan needs an update

Though the substance of U.S.-Taiwan relations has made steady progress under the Trump administration, the American narrative surrounding Taiwan is moving in a dangerous direction, writes Ryan Hass. He contends that the U.S. must update its own story about why Taiwan matters and what Washington aims to achieve in cross-Strait relations.

Redrawing global boundaries? The United States, China, and the viability of spheres of influence in the 21st century

The Assessing China Project convened seven experts with a range of perspectives to evaluate the viability of President Trump's spheres of influence framework and how the approach will impact the U.S.-China competition. William Galston, Ryan Hass, Patricia Kim, Melanie Sisson, Constanze Stelzenmüller, Tom Wright, and Miles Yu investigate whether America's efforts to reassert dominance in the Western Hemisphere strengthen or weaken Washington in its competition with China, how Beijing may react, and what the approach could mean for third countries.

Occidental fall: Assessing Chinese views of US decline

Jonathan Czin and Allie Matthias analyze how Chinese leadership, state media, and foreign policy analysts are assessing American decline. They argue that while the evaluation of U.S. decline has persisted since 2021, Beijing has not become more aggressive internationally and instead focused on self-insulation.

Read in China Leadership Monitor

China is winning by waiting

Kyle Chan contends that by pursuing an unclear and transactional foreign policy, the United States is eroding trust among close partners and pushing them to hedge by deepening engagement with China. Although Beijing remains equally transactional and often less appealing in what it offers, Chan finds that its predictability gives it an advantage as Washington’s credibility frays, allowing China to benefit without changing its own approach.

Read in Foreign Affairs

China’s strategy for Latin America and the 'Trump Corollary'

For Assessing China's "Lost in translation" series, Henrietta Levin argues that while China has significant economic and political interests in Latin America, the region remains an ancillary priority for Beijing. She finds that China may ultimately benefit from the Trump administration's focus on the Western Hemisphere, as it distracts Washington from competing in other regions.

Track II Dialogue on AI and National Security

The Brookings China Center and Tsinghua University's Center for International Security Studies (CISS) convened the 14th round of their Track II Dialogue on Artificial Intelligence and National Security in mid-February in Munich.

As part of this effort, dialogue participants Kyle Chan, Michael E. O'Hanlon, Qi Haotian, and Zheng Lefeng participated in a written exchange on the security risks of misuse of AI by non-state actors and the feasibility of U.S.-China coordination to mitigate this shared threat.

Read the full article here

Huawei was unique in its capabilities and its alignment with China’s national goals. Huawei’s experience was a microcosm of China’s broader experience: suddenly being cut off and now scrambling to build its own.

February 14, 2026 | Kyle Chan, The New York Times

More research and commentary

Global order in transition under Trump. Ryan Hass and Patricia Kim assess whether the Trump administration’s foreign policy decisions are reshaping the international order and whether changes to the international order will endure beyond Trump.

New START's implications for Asia. Patricia Kim examines in Channel News Asia how the erosion of nuclear guardrails is intensifying debate in Asia over nuclear options—amid doubts of the credibility of U.S. security commitments.

China's demographic crisis. Mary Gallagher writes in World Politics Review that China's population decline is accelerating faster than anticipated, driven less by fertility within marriage than by falling marriage rates, gender imbalances rooted in the one-child policy, and shifting economic and social pressures.

Unprecedented Purges of China’s Military. John Culver, Jonathan Czin, and Allie Matthias place the recent PLA purges in historical context—particularly in comparison to the post-Tiananmen crackdown—and evaluate their implications, drawing on a new dataset from CSIS's China Power Project. Listen to the webinar and podcast on the findings.

Power and paranoia in the PLA. Jonathan Czin is interviewed on the War on the Rocks podcast on the effect of China's military purges for PLA readiness, Xi's grip on power, and Beijing's appetite for risk.

Rising risk of war. Mary Gallagher considers in World Politics Review how Xi's military purge and expulsion of Zhang Youxia have increased the likelihood of war over Taiwan.

The implications of the IEEPA ruling for U.S.-China policy. Kyle Chan argues that the Supreme Court's ruling on IEEPA ultimately will strengthen the U.S. approach to China by pushing Washington's trade policy back toward the proper legal and institutional channels.

U.S.-China relations in the Trump administration. Ryan Hass discusses on the Sinica Podcast Trump's approach to China and future scenarios for U.S.-China relations for the remainder of his term in office.

Assessing Trump's China policy. On the Sinica Podcast, Patricia Kim evaluates whether Trump's China policy has produced measurable progress toward its stated objectives of reindustrialization, AI leadership, strategic dependence, and global standing.

U.S. and China's technological recoupling. Kyle Chan explores industrial policy, China's innovation and technology ecosystem, and global technology flows between the U.S. and China on the Sinica Podcast.

U.S. strategic choices on China. Patricia Kim exchanges views on competing visions for U.S. policy toward China and U.S. security commitments in Asia at a CATO event on Dr. Charles Glaser's book "Retrench, Defend, Compete."

A perfect storm for Taiwan? Yun Sun contends on the Decoding Geopolitics Podcast with Dominik Pesl that the risk of China pursuing unification with Taiwan by force may be rising sooner than many anticipate, driven by shifting internal calculations in Beijing and evolving external dynamics in 2026.

Lessons from China for the U.S. clean tech industry. Kyle Chan authored a working paper for the Penn Project on the Future of U.S.-China Relations on how the U.S. can draw on China's experience in clean energy to develop its own industrial capacity.

The U.S. and China's differing views on AGI. Kyle Chan examines in his Substack High Capacity why Beijing and Washington diverge on the importance of developing artificial general intelligence (AGI).

China's AI ecosystem. Kyle Chan is interviewed on the Decouple podcast to unpack the meaning behind “AI with Chinese characteristics," examining China's AI stack, regulatory differences, CCP oversight, and venture capital in China's tech sector.

Public administration in global governance. Lan Xue argues in Chinese Public Administration Review that amid rising transnational crises, expanding roles for non-state actors, and intensifying geopolitical competition, public administration offers a vital lens for addressing these challenges.

About the China Center at Brookings

The John L. Thornton China Center develops timely, independent analysis and policy recommendations to address long-standing challenges related to U.S.-China relations and China's development.