Personnel and policy expectations for the Fourth Plenum, Xi Jinping's counter-reformation, and what awaits a Trump-Xi meeting.
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Brookings John L. Thornton China Center

October 30, 2025

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What's at stake during Trump's visit to Asia?

 

Ahead of the APEC Summit in South Korea and Trump's visit to Malaysia and Japan, Brookings experts Jonathan Czin, Vanda Felbab-Brown, Ryan Hass, Patricia Kim, Lynn Kuok, Michael E. O'Hanlon, Mira Rapp-Hooper, Mireya Solís, Ariqa Herrera, and Andrew Yeo assess the trip's implications in an Around the Halls. The authors discuss Xi’s shift from defense to offense ahead of an anticipated summit with Trump, ongoing U.S.-China fentanyl negotiations, regional partner’s expectations, and Northeast Asian investment deals in the U.S., among other topics.

 

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Stabilizer or spoiler? The China factor in the North Korea nuclear dilemma

 

The Global China project convened leading scholars Jeffrey Feltman, Jennifer Hong Whetsell, Patricia Kim, Randall G. Schriver, and Andrew Yeo to evaluate the U.S. and China's approaches to managing the risks posed by North Korea's nuclear program. The written exchange reflects authors' views on where U.S. and Chinese interests overlap and diverge, North Korea-Russian relations, and whether China acts as enabler or stabilizer of Pyongyang’s nuclear risks.

 

Read more | See Brookings Nonresident Senior Fellow Evans J.R. Revere's reaction to the piece

China against China: Xi Jinping confronts the downsides of success 

 

Debate in Washington remains deeply divided over how to understand Xi Jinping's 13-year rule: whether China under Xi is ascendant or in decline, reforming or retrenching. Jonathan Czin argues that Xi’s “counterreformation” has reversed decades of PRC liberalization and moved toward efforts to enhance China's economic and political resilience.

 

Read in Foreign Affairs

Purges, personnel, and policy: a primer on China’s Fourth Plenum

 

In mid-October, the CCP's Central Committee convened in Beijing for its Fourth Plenum to set the framework for the 15th Five-Year Plan and announce personnel changes. Jonathan Czin and Allie Matthias discuss the implications of the meeting and their expectations for Xi Jinping’s economic priorities and potential purges of PLA and government officials. 

 

Read more

 

To learn more about the Fourth Plenum, watch Jonathan Czin's explainer video below.

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Welcoming Kyle Chan to the China Center

Kyle Chan is joining Brookings as a fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center, where he will concentrate his research on China technology issues. Most recently, he was a Postdoctoral Research Associate and Lecturer in the Department of Sociology at Princeton University, where he focused on China and India's technological ecosystem, infrastructure, and industrial policy.

He has previously served as a consultant to the United Nations Industrial Development Organization and as an adjunct researcher at the RAND Corporation. Chan also writes a popular newsletter called High Capacity on Substack and has published in The New York Times, Foreign Policy, RAND, Times of India, Phenomenal World, Current Journal of Sociology, and Asian Survey, among others. He earned his PhD in Sociology from Princeton University, MSc in Political Sociology from LSE, and BA in Economics from the University of Chicago.

 

Read his introductory Q&A here.

 

Upcoming event

China’s economic priorities: the Fourth Plenum in review. On Monday, November 3, the Brookings China Center will host a panel discussion on the outcomes of the Fourth Plenum and expectations for Beijing's 15th Five-Year Plan. Jonathan Czin will moderate a conversation between Brookings's Kari Heerman, CSIS's Ilaria Mazzocco, Rhodium Group's Oliver Melton, and Trivium China's Andrew Polk.

 

Register to attend in person or watch online

 
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“President Trump doesn’t have conventional views on Taiwan and has been notably more lukewarm in his support for Taiwan, especially compared to his predecessors. [Beijing could] see this as an area where it could push Trump to cut a deal, or to be transactional...”

 

October 23, 2025 | Patricia Kim, Bloomberg

 
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APEC 2025: What’s at stake?

 

Ryan Hass and Mireya Solís were interviewed by Fred Dews for The Current podcast on Trump's visit to South Korea for the 2025 APEC Summit and the Trump-Xi meeting.

 

Listen to the episode | Follow the show

 

More research and commentary

 

What awaits the Trump-Xi meeting? For Global China's Lost in Translation series, Da Wei explores how Beijing’s negotiating posture ahead of the APEC summit reflects a new confidence and discusses how Chinese leaders are prioritizing stability and balance over striking a deal.

 

PLA purges and Chinese elite politics. Jonathan Czin joins Jordan Schneider's podcast ChinaTalk to unpack recent PLA purges, Xi Jinping's inner circle and succession prospects, and Beijing's approach to Trump's second term.

 

The view from Xi Jinping's desk. Jonathan Czin is interviewed on Kaiser Kuo's podcast Sinica on Xi's counter-reformation leadership, allies in the Politburo Standing Committee and the PLA, and leverage ahead of trade talks with the U.S.

 

Outcomes of the Trump-Xi meeting. Mary Gallagher predicts in World Politics Review that both leaders will call a truce and claim victory after their meeting at APEC to project confidence to their domestic audiences.

 

China's SCO objectives. Yun Sun analyzes in War on the Rocks how China is using the SCO for two concrete goals: managing Russia’s sensitivities in Central Asia and promoting an alternative model of global governance.

 

North Korea, Taiwan, and the U.S.-China trade talks. Patricia Kim discusses on CSPAN's Washington Journal North Korea’s growing ties with Russia, Beijing’s competition for global influence, and concerns that U.S.-China trade talks could test Washington’s commitment to Taiwan.

 

U.S.-China trade negotiations at APEC. Jonathan Czin appears on PBS Newshour to unpack Trump's visit to Asia and the recent trade deal framework reached by American and Chinese officials.

 

AI in the U.S.-China competition. Ryan Hass assesses the role of AI in the U.S.-China relationship in a public panel at the Hoover Institution.

 

China’s military is at a crossroads. John Culver evaluates on CSIS's China Power podcast how Xi Jinping is simultaneously purging the PLA's top leadership while rapidly modernizing its capabilities to meet its 2027 centennial benchmarks.

 

Purges and China's economic policy. Jonathan Czin discusses on GMF's China Global podcast the outcomes of China's Fourth Plenum last week, including civilian and military personnel changes and the implications of the 15th Five-Year Plan draft.

 

China's rare earth leverage. Jonathan Czin explores on NPR's The World the implications of China expanding its rare earth export controls ahead of the Trump-Xi Summit.

 

Trump's multi-stop Asia tour. Patricia Kim analyzes for Associated Press Trump's visit to Malaysia, Japan, and South Korea and whether Trump and Xi will be able to reach a trade deal during their meeting at the APEC Summit.

 

Fragility and resilience in the U.S.-China competition. Jonathan Czin argues on Richard Heydrian's podcast Deep Dive that the U.S. and China face dueling internal dysfunctions: Xi’s political centralization and economic slowdown, compared with America’s polarization and strategic drift.

 

Achieving international AGI governance. Xue Lan is interviewed on The Trajectory podcast on how, in addition to the UN, companies, safety institutions, and industry associations play a critical role in multinational coordination on AGI governance.

 

 

About the China Center at Brookings

 

The John L. Thornton China Center develops timely, independent analysis and policy recommendations to address long-standing challenges related to U.S.-China relations and China's development.

 
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