More research and commentary
Looking ahead to Xi's fourth Party Congress. Jonathan Czin predicts in China Leadership Monitor that Beijing's next Party Congress will be most likely defined by whether Xi identifies an heir apparent, policy continuity, and questions over Taiwan, rather than whether Xi steps down.
Taiwan's divided democracy. Richard Bush and Ryan Hass examine how Taiwan’s failed recall vote of KMT legislators could reverberate in Taiwan's politics and in cross-Strait relations.
Southeast Asia's uneasy fit with MAGA. Ryan Hass explores in Fulcrum how Trump's MAGA worldview of economic nationalism, bilateral dealmaking, and deference to sovereignty clashes with Southeast Asia's export-driven model and multilateral traditions.
Trump, trade, and China’s leverage. Yun Sun writes in Foreign Affairs that after initial tariff clashes in Trump’s second term, Beijing feels empowered by U.S. vulnerabilities and sees Trump as a pragmatic partner on trade, while remaining wary of political tensions over Taiwan and ideology.
Trump's dealmaking on China. Ryan Hass participated in a ChinaFile written conversation where he explained that Trump has an iconoclastic approach toward China, viewing it through trade and dealmaking, rather than as a singular threat to be countered.
China's social safety net. Mary Gallagher discusses in World Politics Review how, despite China's recent Supreme Court ruling that ends opt-outs, China needs deeper reforms and stronger enforcement to expand worker insurance and boost its consumption.
Southeast Asia in the US-China AI competition. Ryan Hass assesses in Fulcrum the implications of Southeast Asia's desire not to "choose" sides between the U.S. and China in the AI domain.
Xi, Putin, and Modi at the SCO. Mary Gallagher analyzes in World Politics Review how Xi is using the SCO Summit and military parade commemorating the end of World War II to showcase China's global leadership in the current world order, especially as Trump’s tariffs push India closer to Beijing.
Does Trump have a China strategy? Ryan Hass asserts in Taipei Times that although the Trump administration lacks a consistent through line on China, Trump's approach centers on a critique of the Biden administration, a personalized leader-level relationship, and dealmaking.