I am not ordinarily given to quoting Vladimir Ilyich Lenin (To Whom It May Concern: I am also not a Communist)... but “there are decades when nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen” has been feeling very à propos recently. Let’s just say the Europeans have been slaughtering sacred cows at a rate not seen since the BSE (aka Mad Cow Disease) cullings in the 1990s.
So a brief timeline of recent European responses to the opening of U.S.-Russian ceasefire negotiations appears like a useful public service:
March 2: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is hosted by U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, followed by a private visit to King Charles III
March 3: EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen lays out her “ReArm Europe” plan
March 5: French President Emmanuel Macron says Russia is an adversary, and offers the French nuclear deterrent to the rest of Europe
March 6: At an extraordinary European Council summit, 26 member states (exception: Hungary) endorse support for Ukraine’s sovereignty, €150 billion in defense loans, and loosening the EU debt ceiling as well as the European Investment Bank’s lending rules
March 7: Poland announces it wants access to nuclear weapons
March 13: Portugal publicly ponders backing out of buying U.S.-made F-35 fighter planes; Canada concurs
March 18: Germany amends its Basic Law to allow for “huge” (NPR) spending package on defense and infrastructure
March 19: EU publishes White Paper making case for a “once-in-a-generation surge” in European defense investment to ramp up readiness by 2030
Coincidences? You decide.
We at the Center on the United States and Europe have been busy as well. In this edition of our newsletter, Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, Angela Stent, and Tara Varma join Patricia Kim and Ali Wyne for a conversation on China and Russia’s strategic relationship amidst this upheaval. Kelebogile Zvobgo dissects Ukraine’s battles in the courts of international law since Russia’s full-scale invasion. Aydıntaşbaş and Mustafa Aydin examine prospects for EU-Turkey cooperation in the Black Sea. And Mark Finley and Samantha Gross analyze uncertainties in the global energy transition, in the second paper for our series on how Europe balances the “trilemma” of security of supply, affordability, and sustainability in its energy transition following the shock of Russia’s invasion.
Sino-Russian relations have strengthened since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began but the Trump’s administration’s Russia reset could affect further cooperation. In a recorded conversation, Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, Angela Stent, Tara Varma, Ali Wyne, and Patricia Kim discuss how this strategic partnership could evolve and its larger geopolitical implications.
Since Russia's full-scale invasion, Ukraine has sought legal recourse from organizations like the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court. Kelebogile Zvobgo argues that, while Ukraine's efforts highlight the potential of lawfare to uphold international law, they have failed to induce Moscow’s compliance.
Control over the Black Sea has been a contentious issue for decades and the Russia-Ukraine war has only exacerbated tensions. With U.S.- European relations in flux, Aslı Aydıntaşbaş and Mustafa Aydin argue that renewed cooperation between the EU and Turkey is crucial to maintain stability and counter Russian dominance in the region.
While climate change continues to pose a global challenge, the future of energy supply and demand remains uncertain. Mark Finley and Samantha Gross discuss the complex geopolitical and practical demands of a successful energy transition, arguing that supply and demand should be managed in a coordinated fashion to ensure security and affordability, alongside sustainability.
Peace in Ukraine. The U.S. can still secure a free and independent Ukraine. Thomas Wright argues that, with strong U.S. leadership, an Israel model for Ukraine would likely be the most successful path to deterring future attacks.
Disbanding the PKK. Last month, the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) called for the disarmament and disbandment of his party. Aslı Aydıntaşbaş unpacks the implications of the statement which could end decades of fighting.
Nord Stream 2. Amidst rumors of U.S.-led efforts to resurrect the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Germany and Russia, Constanze Stelzenmüller asserts that this would be a dangerous and disastrous betrayal of Ukraine and Europe.
The trans-Atlantic economy. Daniel S. Hamilton and Joseph P. Quinlan detail the dense economic ties between the United States and Europe in the newest edition of their annual Transatlantic Economy report.
Vance at the MSC. Tara Varma and Sophia Besch analyze Vice President JD Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference and warn against the threat it may pose to the European project.
About the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings
The Center on the United States and Europe(CUSE) offers independent research and recommendations for policymakers, fosters high-level dialogue on developments in Europe and global challenges that affect trans-Atlantic relations, and convenes roundtables, workshops, and public forums on policy-relevant issues.
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