This edition was written by Tara Watson and Jonathon Zars.
💡New from us: The impacts of deportations, how families pay the rising cost of college, and the economics of immigration after 2024
Before Election Day, we forecasted how the two parties' starkly different visions for immigration might translate into immigration inflows and outflows and impacts on the macroeconomy. Wendy Edelberg, Cecilia Esterline, Stan Veuger, and Tara Watson estimate these policy differences could result in 10 million fewer people in the U.S. by 2028. Reduced immigration would cost half a percentage point in 2025 GDP growth (roughly $130 billion) in a “low-immigration” version of Trump’s second term. Tara Watson also covered deportations specifically, including their impact on the economy, crime, and broader civic life.
Phillip Levine discusses how families are covering the rising price of college. The trends vary by income level. With the gap between aid and college costs widening, middle- and upper-income families tap into parental income, savings, and parental loans. Lower-income students are more likely to work throughout college. This difference in how families pay for college could be to the detriment of academic success for lower-income students.
📖 What we're reading
The lasting effects of the Civilian Conservation Corps. Recent research sheds light on the long-term impacts of the Great-Depression-era Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC), America’s largest youth employment program. Throughout the program’s duration, the CCC provided job training and employment to over one-third of men aged 17-24. Although CCC participation showed no significant immediate job market benefits, those who served at least a year likely saw a 5.2% boost in lifetime earnings, lived an extra year, and delayed disability/retirement claims. These findings reveal lasting gains in wealth and well-being, sparking fresh insights into the effectiveness of youth job training programs.
Universal pre-kindergarten to boost parental income. A lottery-based study in New Haven, Connecticut offered universal pre-kindergarten (UPK) to some and assessed the impact it had on parents’ earnings. They find that full-day UPK boosts parents’ income by 21.7% — about $5,461 per year — and that this benefit persists for at least six years. Their cost analysis on UPK shows how expansion pre-K may result in much larger effects for the cost compared to other labor market policies.
"Higher-education deserts" and racial and ethnic gaps in four-year college enrollment. A study by Riley K. Acton, Kalena Cortes, and Camila Morales explores how distance to colleges affects enrollment differently across racial, ethnic, and socio-economic groups. It first finds that white, Hispanic, and rural students, on average, have fewer nearby college options compared to Black, Asian, suburban, and urban students. When there aren’t any two-year college options nearby, student responses vary. White and economically advantaged students often respond by enrolling in nearby four-year colleges instead of two-year programs. However, Black, Hispanic, and economically disadvantaged students are more likely to forgo higher education entirely rather than enroll in close four-year institutions. Differences in distance sensitivity may play a crucial role in understanding racial and ethnic disparities in four-year college enrollment.
📊 Top chart: How the federal budget’s spending on children changes over time
Federal spending priorities have shifted significantly since the 1960s. In 1965, defense accounted for the largest portion at 43% of total spending, but by 2023, it had dropped to 14%. Meanwhile, spending on adult-focused programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid has surged from 14% in 1965 to 43% in 2023, a trend expected to continue over the next decade according to the Urban Institute.
In contrast, federal spending on children’s benefits—as a portion of the total budget—which has grown slowly over time, is projected to decline under current law from 9% in 2023 to 6% by 2034. This reflects a declining share of children in the overall population and planned cuts to the Child Tax Credit, among other factors.
➡️ Worth a click
Learn about the geography of debt in America with this interactive map.
Listen to how the expanded Child Tax Credit is associated with housing stability on this recent podcast.
Understand the impact of immigration on the future U.S. workforce with this short read.
Wednesday, November 20, 2024, 1:30 p.m. - 3:00 p.m. EST
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About the Center for Economic Security and Opportunity at Brookings
The Center for Economic Security and Opportunity (CESO) produces data-driven, nonpartisan analysis to address the United States’ most challenging social policy questions. In a noisy and polarized world, the Center is a trustworthy source for the information and tools policymakers need to build an economy that works for everyone.
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