Plus, Trump's tariffs and Sino-Russian relations.
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Brookings Center on the United States and Europe

December 18, 2024

Dear colleagues and friends, 

 

I am reliably informed by the internet that Mark Twain once said “Truth is stranger than fiction, but it's because fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities; truth isn't,” and I really can’t think of a better way to describe the year that is now drawing to a close. By way of taking stock of the past 12 months, this last CUSE newsletter of 2024 looks back at some of our outstanding writing and analysis throughout the year: 

 

In January, Fiona Hill discussed Russia’s approach to the Israel-Gaza crisis with Kevin Huggard for our Center for Middle East Policy’s Israel-Gaza interview series; the recent downfall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria and what appears to be a partial withdrawal of Russian troops makes it very much worth re-reading. In February, a decade after Ukraine’s Revolution of Dignity led President Viktor Yanukovych to flee and Russia seized Crimea, Mariana Budjeryn remembered the events and examined their legacy in a beautifully written and personal essay. In March, Dan Hamilton explained why the European Union is the United States’ top commercial partner. (Tariffs, anyone?) 

  

In April, Matias Spektor delivered the 10th Justice Stephen Breyer Lecture on International Law with a fascinating examination of what is in store for the global legal order now that the West, for all its power and influence, seems to be no longer hegemonic. In May, Anne Cheng discussed whether China could offer a real alternative to liberal democracy, in the 19th Raymond Aron Lecture.

  

In June, Samantha Gross and I took stock of Europe’s gas divorce from Russia more than two years after Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, in a research paper launching a new project on Europe’s energy transition.

 

In July, Jim Goldgeier, Elizabeth Saunders, and Sarah Binder evaluated the implications of the Supreme Court’s ruling on presidential immunity in Trump vs. United States both at home and with regards to foreign affairs. In August, Valerie Wirtschafter parsed concerns about AI-enhanced Russian disinformation efforts interfering in elections. For the inaugural Tony Judt Lecture on Europe in September, Charles King considered what pluralism means a quarter of the way through the 21st century, what alternatives are on offer, and how to energize a specifically liberal pluralist worldview for our own time.

 

In October, Aslı Aydıntaşbaş spearheaded a multi-author collection on reevaluating the U.S.-Turkey relationship. In November, Laura von Daniels examined the potential for EU economic sanctions against China in a policy brief. And just this month, Tara Varma explained the latest developments in a turbulent moment for French politics in a Q&A with Caroline Grassmuck.

 

One should be careful with predictions, but it’s a safe bet that the coming year will offer more stranger-than-fiction events to write about. In the meantime, my colleagues and I wish you happy holidays and all of us good luck for 2025. Thanks for reading us—and always let us know if you have questions or comments.

 

Yours gratefully,

 

Constanze Stelzenmüller

Director, Center on the United States and Europe

The Brookings Institution

 
2024-12-04T193902Z_2079153607_RC2JIBAX692P_RTRMADP_3_FRANCE-POLITICS

What is going on in France? 

 

Last week, the French parliament passed a vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Michel Barnier, forcing his resignation and the dissolution of his cabinet after just three months in office. In a Q&A with Caroline Grassmuck, Tara Varma breaks down the historic vote and the larger implications for France and Europe.

 

Read more 

The Assad regime falls. What happens now?

 

After more than a decade of civil war, Syrian rebels seized Damascus and forced an end to the brutal regime of Bashar al-Assad. Brookings experts weigh in on the implications of this unexpected offensive and what it means for the future of Syria and the region.

 

Read more 

The China-Russia relationship and threats to vital US interests

 

Sino-Russian relations are stronger than they have been in decades. As part of a new series on the future of U.S.-China policy from the John L. Thornton China Center, Patricia M. Kim, Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, Angela Stent, and Tara Varma identify key challenges and opportunities while providing recommendations for the incoming Trump administration.

 

Read more

 
Quote

“Syria may not have a smooth transition... But what is uncontestable is that Turkey’s influence will only grow, economically and politically.”

 

December 9 | Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, The New York Times

 
More research and commentary
 

Trump’s tariffs. While Trump’s tariff policies may promise to boost the U.S. economy, Douglas A. Rediker writes that they will have disastrous long-term consequences and seriously disrupt the international trade networks.

  

Türkiye Compact. Providing robust policy recommendations, Kemal Kirişci and Friedrich Püttmann argue that the Türkiye Compact from the United Nations Development Programme can act as a model for sustainable migration and refugee policy.

 

Franco-German political instability. After the collapse of the French government and a vote of no confidence in Germany, Tara Varma and Liana Fix discuss the implications of an unstable Europe.

 

Countering autocracy. Pulling from her own experience of living through the authoritarian shift in Turkey, Aslı Aydıntaşbaş provides a list of strategies to help safeguard democratic institutions throughout the Trump administration and beyond.

 

About the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings

 

The Center on the United States and Europe (CUSE) offers independent research and recommendations for policymakers, fosters high-level dialogue on developments in Europe and global challenges that affect trans-Atlantic relations, and convenes roundtables, workshops, and public forums on policy-relevant issues.

 
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