The latest research on fiscal and monetary policy, curated by the Hutchins Center at Brookings.
View in browser
Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy at Brookings

October 3, 2024

 

The Hutchins Roundup brings the latest thinking in fiscal and monetary policy to your inbox. Have something you'd like us to include in the next Roundup? Email us and we'll take a look.

 

This edition was written by Sarah Ahmad, Tristan Loa, Georgia Nabors, and Louise Sheiner.

 

Increases in tariffs decrease national welfare but benefit some states

Robert C. Feenstra of the University of California, Davis and Chang Hong of the U.S. International Trade Commission find that while tariffs reduce overall national welfare, they benefit the states that produce the types of goods subject to those tariffs. Using state-level trade and tariffs data from 2002 to 2017, they find that free trade agreements implemented after 2002 benefited 28 states, with national welfare gains averaging $50 per household. However, states that produced the goods included in the free trade agreements suffered welfare losses. The Trump Administration’s 2018-2019 tariff changes reduced national welfare—by $57 per household in 2017 and $103 per household in 2022—but increased welfare in the 25 states that produced goods subject to tariffs. The authors note that their estimates of welfare losses from the Trump tariffs are lower than those of other studies primarily because they account for product exclusions that reduced the tariffs on certain products.

Higher bank capital reduces risk of downturns

Nina Boyarchenko of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Domenico Giannone of Amazon, and Anna Kovner of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond analyze the relationship between bank capital and future GDP growth. Using bank capital data from 1960 to 2022, they find that higher bank capital ratios significantly reduce the probability of negative GDP growth. Specifically, a one-percentage point increase in bank capital decreases the probability of negative GDP growth by 10% over a one-year horizon. The authors argue that higher bank capital reduces economic vulnerability and prevents bank fragilities from exacerbating economic downturns. They conclude that “capital ratios support future real GDP growth over and above their effects on credit growth, suggesting a broader role of bank capital in the economy beyond fueling credit growth.”

Elimination of the mortgage interest deduction encourages refinancing

The increase in the standard deduction in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act led many households to stop deducting mortgage interest, raising households’ post-tax mortgage rates. Tess Scharlemann and Eileen van Straelen of the Federal Reserve Board find that households that gave up the mortgage interest deduction were 25% more likely to refinance in response to a decline in mortgage rates. The increase in refinancing was most pronounced among households with mortgage rates 50 to 150 basis points above prevailing rates. They find no evidence that households reduced the size of their mortgage in response to the weakening incentives to deduct mortgage interest. The authors conclude that the increase in the standard deduction may have improved the pass-through of monetary policy by increasing mortgage refinancing.

Savings rate revised up

Savings rate revised up. Two lines, one is revised line and the other is the previously published line.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis via FRED

Quote of the week

"The IMF staff, and the IMF board, are (too) polite. I’m a Midwesterner. I love politeness. But Keynes is reported to have said that the IMF had to serve as a 'ruthless truth teller.' And I agree that it should do so even when it is uncomfortable, whether for borrower countries with programs or for their official creditors," says Brent Neiman, Assistant Secretary for International Finance.

 

"For example, the Fund often lends based on promises made by official bilateral creditors to forgive debt or to offer new financing, promises referred to as financing assurances. But even though this financing can be central to hold the IMF program together, the details on financing assurances – who gave them, when, in what form, and any failures to deliver on these commitments – are not always publicly disclosed."

 

"The Fund is also sometimes too polite in its surveillance responsibilities.  For example, as described in its Articles of Agreement, the IMF was established in part to 'facilitate the expansion and balanced growth of international trade' and to 'maintain orderly exchange arrangements among members, and to avoid competitive exchange depreciation.' However, if you read the Fund’s Article IV Reports, you will find that these sorts of topics get less attention than they deserve, including in globally significant economies like China’s. For example, the IMF does not publicly comment on the role of state-owned banks in managing China’s exchange rate or on why changes in the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC’s) balance sheet don’t line up with reserve transactions in China’s balance of payments data.  And while the Fund has built admirable expertise in compiling alternative measures of China’s local government debt, far beyond what authorities publish, it has neglected to apply this same analytical rigor to quantifying China’s industrial policies."

 

About the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at Brookings

 

The mission of the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy is to improve the quality and efficacy of fiscal and monetary policies and public understanding of them.

 
X/Twitter
Facebook
Instagram
LinkedIn

The Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington,DC, 20036

Unsubscribe | Manage newsletter subscriptions