Is the AI existential threat real—and can regulatory action prevent it?

Following new warnings from a former AI researcher and reports of concerning model behavior and cybersecurity incidents, a growing debate has emerged over the risks posed by increasingly autonomous AI systems. How might policymakers balance risk mitigation with continued innovation and global competitiveness?  

In this collection of responses, experts from across Brookings offer a range of perspectives, addressing both the validity of these risks and what regulatory actions are necessary to prevent them. 

This week, the Economic Studies program launched the Fall 2026 edition of the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) academic conference and journal. Below, read about a selection of new research and learn more about the conference and other new papers here.

Oil shocks and the U.S. economy. For decades, a spike in oil prices reliably meant a looming recession. In new research, Brookings Nonresident Senior Fellow James Stock writes with Diego Känzig and Luca Zanotti that this rule no longer holds; as the U.S. has shifted from a major oil importer to a net exporter, a rise in oil prices now boosts rather than depresses U.S. economic activity.

Financing the AI buildout. A new paper by Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh projects that AI investment in data center buildings, power systems, networking infrastructure, and specialized chips and other equipment will total an enormous $10.3 trillion from 2025 to 2032, or an average of 3.63% of U.S. gross domestic product per year—larger relative to the economy than the major historical U.S. canal, railroad, electrification, highway, and telecommunications investment booms. The required financial investment for this buildout increasingly requires third-party capital, re-allocating and potentially amplifying risk.

How the post-pandemic migration surge affected labor and housing markets. Jennifer Hunt, Pia Orrenius, and Madeline Zavodny examine the economic impact of the 6.5 million new immigrants who entered the United States outside of the usual legal pathways from 2021 to 2024, finding that the U.S. economy appears to have largely absorbed the unprecedented influx of migrants with few adverse economic effects.

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