Assessing the risks and costs of the rising US federal debt 

Wednesday, February 12, 2025, 10:00 – 11:30 a.m. EST 
Online: https://www.brookings.edu/events/assessing-the-risks-and-costs-of-the-rising-us-federal-debt/ 

The U.S. federal debt stands close to a historically high 100% of GDP and is projected to rise steadily. Warnings that rising debt will lead to fiscal crisis and economic catastrophe are widespread. In a new paper, Brookings scholars Wendy Edelberg, director of the Hamilton Project; Ben Harris, vice president and director of Economic Studies, and Louise Sheiner, Robert S. Kerr Senior Fellow and policy director of the Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy, examine the channels through which the federal debt affects the economy and assess the likelihood of a fiscal crisis.

They argue that, under realistic (but still dire) scenarios, U.S. government debt appears unlikely to spark a fiscal crisis over the next several decades—although political missteps could increase that risk. Instead, increases in federal debt will likely manifest as a slow and steady erosion of our capital stock and national wealth that will ultimately impair living standards.

On February 12, the authors will present their findings, which then will be discussed by a panel to include Richard Clarida, professor at Columbia University and former vice chair of the Federal Reserve; Jason Furman, professor at the Harvard Kennedy School and former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers; and Matthew Rutherford, principal at Bracebridge Capital and former assistant Treasury secretary for financial markets.

Viewers can join the conversation and ask questions in advance by emailing events@brookings.edu or on X @BrookingsEcon using the hashtag #USdebt.