This edition was written by Tara Watson and Sasha Snyder.
💡 New from us: The relationship between state-level school spending and educational outcomes, changes to the federal Parent PLUS loan system, and the credibility of government statistics at risk.
State-level spending on elementary and secondary schools varies significantly across the U.S., with some states spending more than twice what others do. Research by Sarah Reber and Gabriela Goodman finds only a weak correlation between spending and educational outcomes measured by test scores and graduation rates. This holds even in the case of economically disadvantaged students; living in a higher-spending state does not lead to better outcomes. The results support the authors’ conclusion that improving schools is “not, in general, a mere matter of money.”
The budget reconciliation bill introduces changes to the structure of Parent PLUS loans, which help millions of American families finance their children’s education. Under the bill, families will be limited in the amount that they can borrow. Arnav Dharmagadda and Sarah Turner explore the implications of this change across different demographic groups. The authors argue that new limits will penalize higher-income families who tend to borrow more and are better positioned to manage repayment. The low- and moderate-income households who more often struggle with debt burden usually borrow amounts below the caps, so the bill is unlikely to affect their borrowing or improve loan repayment.
The recent firing of the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, coupled with growing political pressure on government agencies, has raised serious concerns about the future credibility of the federal statistical system. Ben Harris and Fred Dews discuss the importance of reliable and unbiased federal economic data for a well-functioning economy. They explain how statistics like GDP, unemployment, and inflation are essential not only for business strategy, but also for household financial decision-making. While the current data remain credible, Harris warns that losing public trust in government statistics is “a path we don’t want to go down.” He argues that the private sector cannot adequately substitute for the federal statistical system due to differences in capacity and incentives.
📖 What we’re reading
Does SSI support in early childhood improve outcomes later in life? Research by Amelia Hawkins and collaborators compares young adults who received Supplemental Security Income (SSI) in infancy with those who were just below the birth weight eligibility threshold and did not receive SSI. They find no significant difference in income, education, or health later in life. The authors offer potential explanations for these null results: the size of the benefit may be too small to produce lasting effects, or receiving the benefits could carry stigma or reduce the incentive to work. They also note that while their specific measures show no long-term advantages, the SSI program may still provide meaningful, welfare-enhancing support to recipients.
How do university student immigration policies affect STEM workforce development and innovation? In recent years, the United States has become a less attractive destination for international students and scholars, with migrants instead opting for countries like Canada, Australia, China, and India. Ina Ganguli and Megan MacGarvie explore the policies behind these shifts and their implications for labor markets and STEM innovation. They point to the 2017 “Muslim Ban” and Brexit as policy drivers of the recent plateau or decline in international student migration to the U.S. and the U.K. The authors review existing literature on the significant positive impact of migrants on STEM research output in destination countries and highlight the need for future research on topics such as the role of postdoctoral migrants in the U.S. or the impact of migration on innovation in home countries.
Do households engage in climate-related migration in the United States?This article by Patrick Baylis and co-authors finds that migration behavior in the U.S. has been influenced by temperature changes. The authors use long-run data from both the census and tax filings, and they find that warm temperatures substantially reduce net migration. Temperature increases both “push" existing residents out and reduce the “pull” for new residents. Moreover, the authors show that these responses are much larger for long-term temperature changes and have been consistent across decades since the 1950s, indicating that technological advancements like air conditioning have not deterred climate-related migration.
📊 Top chart: Parent PLUS loan changes may have unintended consequences.
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act institutes new borrowing limits for Parent PLUS loans, which allow millions of American parents to pay for their children's education. However, Arnav Dharmagadda and Sarah Turner show that most families who struggle to repay Parent PLUS loans typically borrow amounts below these new caps, while higher-income borrowers who generally manage debt repayment successfully will be constrained by the new limits.
➡️ Worth a click
Don’t miss this essay on government statistics and the potential for private sector data.
Stay updated on state vaccine requirements for school children with this article.
Tune into this podcast on the new fee on H-1B visas and its effects on STEM workers.
The Institute for Research on Poverty at the University of Wisconsin-Madison
Thursday, October 30; 1:15 p.m. - 2:30 p.m. EDT
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About the Center for Economic Security and Opportunity at Brookings
The Center for Economic Security and Opportunity (CESO) produces data-driven, nonpartisan analysis to address the United States’ most challenging social policy questions. In a noisy and polarized world, the Center is a trustworthy source for the information and tools policymakers need to build an economy that works for everyone.
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