Plus, unpacking Trump's Department of Education EO and new research on the baby boom, family leave, and early education.
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Brookings Center for Economic Security and Opportunity

April 9, 2025

In this edition:

    • Check out our new publications on the risk of family separations, falling college prices, and unpacking the executive order to close the Department of Education. 
    • What we’re reading: The modern mortgage and the U.S. baby boom, long-run effects of California’s Paid Family Leave Act, and the importance of early education. 
    • This month’s top chart shows college prices are falling for everyone (almost). 
    • Worth a click: Estimating the unauthorized immigrant population, middle schooler experiences, and The Care Board. 
    • For your calendar: Registered apprenticeships, closing early opportunity gaps, and household credit insecurity. 

        This edition was written by Tara Watson and Jonathon Zars.

         

        💡 New from us: The risk of family separations, falling college prices, and unpacking the executive order to close the Department of Education.

         

        Trump’s renewed immigration enforcement policies will likely increase the number of family separations, placing millions of U.S.-citizen children at risk of losing a parent to deportation. In a Dallas Morning News commentary, Maria Cancian and Tara Watson highlight the Department of Homeland Security’s lack of a clear plan for caring for these children, leaving them reliant on kin, non-relatives, or the child welfare system—solutions that could exacerbate trauma and harm. With more than five million U.S.-born children estimated to be living in households with undocumented parents, the administration’s aggressive stance on deportations could engender devastating impacts on vulnerable families and overwhelm the child welfare system. 

         

        Despite skyrocketing sticker prices at many colleges, the actual amount most students pay has been decreasing over time due to financial aid. Phillip Levine’s analysis highlights that sticker prices are often misleading and do not reflect the true cost of attendance. Nevertheless, while net prices have fallen for many, affordability remains a significant challenge, particularly for low-income families. At institutions with low or moderate endowments, the net costs often exceed what is reasonable for these families to pay, perpetuating unequal access to higher education. The article underscores the complexity of college pricing and the persistent barriers faced by students from lower-income backgrounds, even as average costs decline.

         

        With last month’s executive order (EO) attempting to close the Department of Education, many are left wondering what the real effects of this will be and what rhetoric to believe. Michael Hansen, Katharine Meyer, Rachel M. Perera, and Jon Valant provide their analysis, and important context of the EO. Major legal, political, and logistical hurdles remain in the path of efforts to dismantle the department. Their commentary dispels misconceptions about the department’s mission and the reality of what the administration can do without further Congressional approval.  

         

        📖 What we’re reading

         

        The modern mortgage may have paved the way for the U.S. baby boom. Lisa J. Dettling & Melissa Schettini Kearney leverage new loan data from 1935-1957 to show that increased loan availability from FHA and VA-backed loan programs likely led to three million additional births during this period. Racial discrimination in these historic lending programs shows that births weren’t nearly as high for non-white families—those without new home financing available. The piece bolsters the argument that access to home ownership has an important relationship with family size.  

         

        Paid family leave may not reduce the gender pay gap or child penalty. A recent study of California’s 2004 Paid Family Leave Act (CPFL) finds that it may have worsened earnings and employment gaps for some women. The law had no overall effect on mothers’ labor outcomes and appears to have reduced employment and earnings for first-time mothers. The researchers warn that even modest, gender-neutral leave policies can unintentionally reinforce traditional gender roles and hinder women’s labor force progress. 

         

        Early education interventions continue to show strong effects on later academic outcomes. Thomas Lloyd and Dean Yang utilize a shift in the Philippines’ early public school education to show that reduced early schooling created significant declines in later year education attainment and standardized scores. Their analysis underscores the importance of investing in quality education at the beginning of a child’s education. 

         

        📊 Top chart: Sticker prices for college are on the rise, but overall costs are not

        College prices are lower in the last decade for all but the highest household income groups. Sticker prices have also risen

        This month’s top chart shows that despite rising sticker prices at most schools, the cost of attendance has consistently declined for all but the wealthiest households. As Phillip Levine’s analysis makes clear, sticker prices are often misleading and don’t reflect the true cost students face after financial aid. 

         

        ➡️ Worth a click

          • Listen to this podcast to hear how the unauthorized immigrant population is measured and how to understand these methods in the context of public policy debates. 
          • Explore the state of middle schoolers’ well-being in the U.S. and what research says about the importance of supporting children during these formative years. 
          • Check out The Care Board to explore a one-stop shop for care economy data and visualizations.  

           

           

          📅 For your calendar

           

          Smart from the Start: Closing Early Opportunity Gaps with Strategic Early Learning Investments 
          Ford School of Public Policy at the University of Michigan 
          Wednesday, April 9; 4:00 – 5:00 p.m. EDT 
          Attend In-Person or Watch Online 

           

          Examining Credit Insecurity in the United States 
          Federal Reserve Bank of New York 
          Wednesday, April 16; 1:00 – 2:15 p.m. EDT 
          Watch Online 

           

          Registered Apprenticeship: Industry Driven, Made to Scale 
          The Urban Institute 
          Wednesday, April 30; 2:00 p.m. – 4:30 p.m. EDT 
          Attend In-Person or Watch Online 

           

          About the Center for Economic Security and Opportunity at Brookings

           

          The Center for Economic Security and Opportunity (CESO) produces data-driven, nonpartisan analysis to address the United States’ most challenging social policy questions. In a noisy and polarized world, the Center is a trustworthy source for the information and tools policymakers need to build an economy that works for everyone.

           
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