Plus, a comprehensive collection of CUSE summer reading and watching recommendations
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Brookings Center on the United States and Europe

July 23, 2025

Dear readers, 

 

I don’t know about you, but it has been an exceedingly long year already, much of which has felt like Groundhog Day, every day (bombardments! negotiations! tariffs! incendiary substacks!). You, I hope, are already on or about to go on vacation; and I, in fact, am writing this from vacation.  

 

So, without further ado: here is our July newsletter. And while there will be no August newsletter (because: vacation), this edition, besides containing some exceptional pieces of analysis by Dan Hamilton (tariffs!) and Aslı Aydıntaşbaş (why you should worry about Turkey-Israel, even on vacation), and a fascinating essay on energy policy for the Iberian Peninsula, also features our colleagues’ excellent and highly idiosyncratic list of summer reading and viewing.  

 

That should see you through to September! 

 

Yours in haste to get back to the beach,

 

Constanze Stelzenmüller 

Director, Center on the United States and Europe 

The Brookings Institution 

 
Shipping containers and cargo ships seen in the port of Barcelona, one of the biggest sea ports of Europe. (Davide Bonaldo/SOPA Images via Reuters Connect)

How Europe can avoid a transatlantic trade war 

 

After rejecting an interim trade deal from U.S. negotiators earlier this month, President Trump is now threatening to levy a blanket 30% tariff on all goods imported from the EU by August 1, on top of existing tariffs on industry-specific goods. Daniel S. Hamilton breaks down the state of play, arguing that Europeans should intensify personal diplomacy, but also be prepared to retaliate. 

 

Read more

The end of the “imperial republic” and the future of the transatlantic alliance 

 

In the 20th annual Raymond Aron Lecture, now available in published form, Camille Grand posits that the United States and Europe must both adapt for a “post-imperial” era: the Europeans by taking on the bulk of their own defense, the U.S. by letting go. Their choice: a structured transition, or a chaotic process that is vulnerable to exploitation by adversaries.

 

In response to Grand’s lecture, Mara Karlin notes that the Trump administration’s shift is not yet complete (not least because of the ongoing force posture review) and recommends that Europeans “broaden and deepen” other partnerships. Peter Rough warns that Europeans must still transform “anxieties into capabilities,” but points out the limitations on Trump’s “businessman-peacemaker” strategy. 

 

Read more | Watch the event 

 

Turkey and Israel risk sliding towards confrontation

 

Although the conflict between Israel and Iran has cooled, a different confrontation is emerging between two key U.S. allies: Israel and Turkey. With Syria as a focal point of their geopolitical rivalry, the two countries are pursuing divergent and increasingly assertive visions for regional order. Aslı Aydıntaşbaş argues that in the absence of decisive U.S. engagement, this dynamic may herald the next clash in the Middle East. 

 

Read in the Financial Times 

 

After the energy crisis: Policy responses in the Iberian Peninsula

Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine precipitated an energy crisis across the European continent. While the Iberian Peninsula was less affected than other regions, the dramatic supply shortage exposed clear gaps in the region’s energy security and interconnections with greater Europe. Gonzalo Escribano, Ana Fontoura Gouveia, João Fachada, and Ignacio Urbasos Arbeloa analyze the energy landscape in Spain and Portugal, breaking down the effects of the 2022 crisis and obstacles to energy independence while providing recommendations for a more resilient energy infrastructure in the EU.  

 

Read more 

 

CUSE summer reading and watch list 

We asked our CUSE team to share what they’re reading and watching on holiday.  

 

Aslı Aydıntaşbaş: I Regret Almost Everything (2025) by Keith McNally, the legendary NY restaurateur. McNally is the quintessential contrarian — speaking his mind on politics and ideological excesses and spilling the beans on celebrities. It is a fun summer read! 

 

Mariana Budjeryn: Cat’s Cradle (1963) by Kurt Vonnegut. An essential piece of “bomb literature,” this is an absurd, satirical first-person account of an author researching a book about the day the bomb was dropped on on Hiroshima, complete with a mud-freezing secret weapon, a diminutive Ukrainian dancer, bug tormentors, and so much more. 

 

Jim Goldgeier: Mother Emanuel: Two Centuries of Race, Resistance, and Forgiveness in One Charleston Church (2025) by Kevin Sack: an extraordinary history of Charleston dating from the 1500s and centered on the African Methodist Episcopal Church, the oldest African Methodist Episcopal church in the U.S., where Dylan Roof committed mass murder in 2015. It opens with the horrific events of that night. 

 

Caroline Grassmuck: Mountainhead (2025). Written and directed by Jesse Armstrong (creator of Succession), this film follows four tech billionaires in a luxury ski chalet while the world below them erupts into chaos and violence due to a software update on one of the billionaires’ social media platforms. Warning: it might make you want to go off grid! 

 

Samantha Gross: The Age of Fire is Over (2021) by Vincent Petit. I don’t agree with every word, but the fundamental premise of the book rings very true: Past energy transitions weren’t supply driven—and the coming transition won’t be either. Instead, they were shaped by changes in demand and often brought about radical changes in technology and society.  

 

Anna Grzymała-Busse: Emperor of Gladness (2025), by Ocean Vuong. Checks all the boxes: post-industrial Connecticut, elderly East European, band of misfits at a fast-food restaurant, family legends and immigrant myths, howlingly funny and heartbreaking all at once. Could not put it down. 

 

Daniel Hamilton: Babylon Berlin (TV series, 2017–): mystery, intrigue, crime, corruption, violence, fabulous music, and the death of democracy, all in a police procedural set in Weimar-era Berlin. And Indigenous Continent (2024) by Pekka Hämäläinen: 400 years of history on an American continent dominated by a mosaic of native American peoples and empires until well into the 19th century. Reveals which Europeans "smelled like alligators," and why kelp was the key to America! 

 

Fiona Hill: Department Q (2025), an absorbing and brilliant show on Netflix. And it features a classmate of mine from St. Andrew’s! (But I have a mountain of books I want to read!) 

 

Kemal Kirisçi: Two Roads Home (2023) by Daniel Finkelstein, a member of the House of Lords and son of a professor at the Department of Systems Science at City University in London when I was doing my PhD there. It tells the harrowing story of how Finkelstein’s grandparents survived World War II, escaped from Germany and the Soviet Union, and found a new home in England. 

 

Manuel Muñiz: The Handover (2023) by David Runciman: delves into how corporations have managed to amass immense amounts of information on individuals, their lives and their preferences, and the implications this has for our freedom. Also The Future of Geography (2023) by Tim Marshall, on the growing economic, political and geopolitical importance of outer space as a new domain of cooperation and competition. 

 

Cole Pan: Shōgun (2024). The main character is modeled after the legendary Japanese warlord Tokugawa Ieyasu. who navigates powerful rival generals, threats, and shifting alliances to eventually unify a fractured Japan. The series also depicts Europeans through Japanese eyes, the dynamics of foreign trade, and the competition between Catholicism and Protestantism in Asia! 

 

Nalani Payson: The Catch Me If You Can: One Woman’s Journey to Every Country in the World (2022): a literally completist travelogue by the black Ugandan-American writer Jessica Nabongo’s about her trips to, yes, 195 countries. Includes many recommendations and unique personal stories! 

 

Douglas Rediker: Chokepoints (2025) by Eddie Fishman (2025) is a great exploration of economic statecraft and related issues like sanctions; important but extremely approachable! Tom Lake (2023), by Ann Patchett. Loved it.  

 

Ted Reinert: All That Breathes (2022) is an Indian documentary film about Mohammad Saud and Nadeem Shehzad, a pair of brothers in New Delhi who rescue and rehabilitate black kites, birds of prey struggling with the city’s pollution. Lyrical and gorgeously shot, it also captures rising anti-Muslim sentiment in Modi’s India. “Life itself is kinship,” it posits. “We’re all a community of air.”  

 

Constanze Stelzenmüller: The Captive Mind (1953) by Polish Nobel laureate Czesław Miłosz on how postwar Polish intellectuals succumbed to Stalinism; it remains a classic treatise on denial, accommodation, and collaboration. Lavinia (2008), by Ursula le Guin, an erudite and poetic reimagining of Virgil’s Aeneid from the viewpoint of Rome’s founding mother. 

  

Angela Stent: The Illegals (2025), by Shaun Walker is a gripping history of the Soviet and Russian Illegals program and what it actually achieved. Included: the plots to assassinate Trotsky and Tito, and the story of the Cambridge-based family who were the models for the TV series The Americans.  

 

Thomas Wright: Empire of AI (2025) by Karen Hao, a great overview of the characters and fissures in the tech world on the race for AI and AGI. Also Zbig, (2025), by Ed Luce: a magisterial life of Zbigniew Brzezinski, the Polish-born national security adviser to President Carter (and antipode to Henry Kissinger). And The Agency (2024), an American remake of the wonderful French show The Bureau. 

     
    More research and commentary
     

    Merz and the AfD. A failed judicial nomination vote has shaken Chancellor Merz’s coalition to the core. Constanze Stelzenmüller warns in the Financial Times that the AfD is orchestrating culture wars to break apart the coalition while pretending to moderate in order to win over the right wing of Merz’s conservative CDU. 

     

    NATO-IP4. While NATO has made meaningful progress in engaging with Indo-Pacific partners, its efforts risk being undermined by fluctuating U.S. policy. To ensure long-term cooperation, NATO must institutionalize and deepen direct ties with these partners, absent Washington’s influence, writes Lynn Kuok in Foreign Policy. 

     

    Trump/Putin. Fiona Hill joined Susan Glasser on the New Yorker's Political Scene podcast to discuss the Trump-Putin relationship and parallels between the U.S. and Russia, as well as the Trump administration’s attack on Harvard and other universities. 

     

    After the Hague summit. European leaders, distracted by Trump’s theatrics at the NATO summit, missed the chance to build a long-term plan for Ukraine. Tara Varma argues that Europe must, instead of hoping for future U.S. reversals, scale defense production, prepare contingency plans, and work more closely with Indo-Pacific allies.  

     

    Ending the war in Ukraine. In a 180-degree turn, the Trump administration has agreed to sell weapons—including air defense systems—to Europeans for the purpose of arming Ukraine; it is also threatening tariffs on Russia if Putin does not agree to a ceasefire. Thomas Wright explains in the Atlantic that only a serious battlefield strategy, backed by a dedicated White House team, can force Putin to reconsider his war aims. 

     

    💡 In case you missed it

    • Nope, you didn’t. Go have yourselves a nice vacation!
     

    About the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings

     

    The Center on the United States and Europe (CUSE) offers independent research and recommendations for policymakers, fosters high-level dialogue on developments in Europe and global challenges that affect trans-Atlantic relations, and convenes roundtables, workshops, and public forums on policy-relevant issues.

     
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