January 8, 2025

In this edition:

• Check out our new work on the future of higher education research, immigration and Social Security, and what to expect on immigration policy from a Trump White House.

• What were reading: The benefits and costs of paid family leave, the role gifted education may play in helping higher-ability boys from disadvantaged backgrounds and changes in family structure and welfare participation since the 1960s.

• This month’s top chart shows how an aging population and lower birth rates are a serious concern for the longevity of the current Social Security system.

• Worth a click: The role immigration played in the recent elections, concerns with current apprenticeship programs, and which places would be most affected by the Trump administration’s immigration policies?
    
• For your calendar: Previewing the 119th Congress and the outlook for retirement security in a new Congress.

This edition was written by Tara Watson and Jonathon Zars.

💡 New from us: Higher education research, immigration and Social Security’s future, and what to expect on immigration policy from Trump

Early last month, Sarah Reber presented her report, “Supporting students to and through college: What does the evidence say?” The presentation was followed by a panel of higher education experts who discussed the report’s findings and shared insights for future research. The discussion emphasized the importance of sustainable interventions, simplifying financial aid processes, and increasing access to selective, affordable colleges. Panelists highlighted the value of personal advisor-student relationships, the challenges of scaling effective programs, and the need to support transfer students better. Emma Phillips shares key takeaways from the event and ideas for advancing research in this critical policy area.

Demographic shifts in America threaten the financial health of the Social Security system, with increased longevity and reduced fertility straining the system. Simon Hodson, Emma Phillips, and Tara Watson outline how immigration can help address the looming 2035 exhaustion of the Social Security trust fund. Immigrants contribute significantly to the workforce, boosting payroll tax revenue and improving the program’s sustainability by expanding the working-age population as well as fertility rates. The authors stress that smart immigration policies are vital for population growth and ensuring Social Security’s long-term viability.

In just two weeks, there will be a new presidential administration and, with that, a seismic shift in immigration policy. Tara Watson and Jonathon Zars explore three scenarios for what Trump’s team might do on immigration. Guiding this analysis is reflection on Trump’s first term in office, campaign rhetoric, and suggested policy changes from Project 2025. Whichever scenario comes to pass, there is no doubt that the new administration will change both the discourse and reality of America’s immigration system. The exact contours will depend in part on the political and legal battles that ensue. But, almost certainly, immigration flows will slow and enforcement will become much harsher, both with significant consequences for communities and the U.S. economy.

📖 What we’re reading

Major returns may occur for a U.S. paid family leave investment. Research by Buyi Wang and colleagues provides an economic analysis of national paid family leave programs, revealing that for every $1,000 invested, society could realize at least $7,275 in net social benefits. By systematically reviewing programs implemented in California and Norway, the researchers demonstrate that paid parental leave generates substantial benefits, including improved maternal health/infant well-being and potential increases in future child earnings.

Gifted education may help in closing the college enrollment gap. David Card, Eric Chyn, and Laura Giuliano assess high-IQ children from a disadvantaged background attending a large, urban public school district. For boys with IQs around the cutoff, gifted identification raises the college entry rate by 25-30 percentage points – enough to catch up with girls in the same IQ range. Importantly, they find that gifted education has little effect on standardized test scores, which suggests these programs help develop critical non-cognitive skills.

Expanded legal resources in the 1960s impacted family structure. The War on Poverty’s legal services program (LSP) provided subsidized legal resources to communities in need. These services focused on divorce and access to Aid to Families with Dependent Children, the now-defunct cash welfare program for single parents. Jamein Cunningham and Andrew Goodman-Bacon assess the effects of LSP’s rollout from the mid-60s to the mid-70s and find that legal services successfully expanded welfare access and, in the process, increased nonmarital birth rates. This occurred not because women had more children but because they were more likely to forgo marriage with improved program access.

📊 Top chart: Immigrants and their children are critical to the Social Security system

This chart illustrates the U.S. population by age group and immigration status. First-generation immigrants and their children play a vital role in supporting the aging U.S. population by broadening the base of the population “pyramid.”

➡️ Worth a click

• Listen to this podcast about the role immigration played in the recent elections.
• Read this article to understand the concerns with current apprenticeship programs.
• See this brief about which places could be most affected by the Trump administration’s immigrant deportation proposals.

📅 For your calendar

The 119th Congress: What lies ahead

The Brookings Institution 

Thursday, January 9, 2025, 2:00 p.m. - 3:00 p.m. EST

Watch online

The outlook for retirement security in a new Congress 

The Brookings Institution

Thursday, February 13, 2025, 9:45 a.m. - 11:30 a.m. EST

Watch online or attend in person

About the Center for Economic Security and Opportunity at Brookings

The Center for Economic Security and Opportunity (CESO) produces data-driven, nonpartisan analysis to address the United States’ most challenging social policy questions. In a noisy and polarized world, the Center is a trustworthy source for the information and tools policymakers need to build an economy that works for everyone.