The Red State Spread and the 2020 Election

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A poll worker wears PPE at a polling station at ASU.

President Trump contracted COVID-19 just as the virus was spreading to new states and counties that he won in the 2016 election. In an analysis below, William Frey examines this development and explains what it could mean for the 2020 contest.

Also in this edition, we look at how the pandemic could affect the views of voters in swing states, strategies for policymakers to generate an equitable recovery, and some of the ways schools can adapt to the COVID-19 era.

Lastly, be sure to register for next Friday's webinar discussion on the U.S. intelligence community and their approach to the pandemic.

COVID-19 and the 2020 election

The virus spreads further into red America. After a summer surge of COVID-19 into Republican-leaning states and counties, cases continued to spike in these places during September. William Frey discusses the possible implications for this fall's election.

Will the pandemic change swing state politics? Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio are set to be highly-contested states in the 2020 election. Alan Berube looks at how the COVID-19 recession could drive voter decisions in these battleground states.

For a deeper dive on the data used, see the Metro Recovery Index, which tracks the impact of the COVID-19 recession on key economic indicators.

Driving an equitable recovery

Helping America's distressed communities recover. Even before the COVID-19 recession, distressed communities across the United States lacked sufficient jobs. Timothy Bartik lays out a strategy to address the problem.

Place-based cash relief. Today's public health and economic crises are creating an urgent need for place-based solutions that provide relief to people in the hardest-hit neighborhoods. Scott Kratz shares an example from the nation's capital.

Struggles for Latino workers. The COVID-19 recession has driven much of the growth in the unemployment gap between Latino and white workers; a gap that is nearly three times what it was at the beginning of the year. Aaron Klein and Ariel Gelrud Shiro call for targeted support from U.S. policymakers.

The pandemic and education

When should schools reopen fully? "Education leaders always bear a heavy responsibility even in the best of times, for all that schools and colleges do for society. The weight of that responsibility may never again be heavier than it is right now." Douglas Harris discusses the difficult decisions facing school administrators and offers strategies to consider.

Tutoring amid COVID-19. Tutoring ranks among the most widespread, versatile, and potentially transformative instruments within today's educational toolkit. Andre Nickow, Phillip Oreopoulos, and Vincent Quan argue this is especially true during a pandemic.

A new approach to learning. The pandemic provides an opportunity to overhaul Nigeria's education curriculum so it can better prepare the current and next generation of students. Thelma Obiakor proposes a new framework based on digital literacy, reading, arithmetic, and writing.

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