Bipolarity in the international system, the Fourth Plenum's purges and policy continuity, and the Brookings-CISS Track II Dialogue on AI and National Security.
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Brookings John L. Thornton China Center

December 1, 2025

2025-11-04T050014Z_297320356_RC25MHA9QBHE_RTRMADP_3_USA-CHINA-FENTANYL

What happened when Trump met Xi?

 

In an essay compilation, Brookings experts Kyle Chan, Jonathan Czin, Ryan Hass, Kari Heerman, Patricia M. Kim, Michael E. O’Hanlon, Mira Rapp-Hooper, Melanie W. Sisson, and Susan A. Thornton analyzed the key takeaways and the success of Trump's meeting with Xi in Busan. Examining the meeting from various disciplines, the authors analyze structural features of the relationship and explore whether the meeting represents a turning point in the relationship.

 

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How Xi played Trump: Beijing gambled and is now reaping the rewards

 

Assessing the past year of U.S.-China trade negotiations, Jonathan Czin argues that Washington has found itself with a confused China policy with no tangible gains. Instead, Czin contends that China has successfully weathered Washington's trade escalation and emerged diplomatically, strategically, and technologically stronger.

 

Read in Foreign Affairs

Pax Americana is over: What comes next and how will it impact Southeast Asia?

 

"Despite broad global enthusiasm for the emergence of a multipolar international order, the world remains bipolar. In terms of raw national power, the United States and China are the two most capable powers," writes Ryan Hass. He explores how the shifting international order presents both opportunities and challenges for Southeast Asia, arguing that the overriding issue for the region will be to capture benefits from the unfolding industrial revolutions in artificial intelligence, clean energy, and biotechnology.

 

Read in ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute

Assessing China’s fourth plenum: Policy continuity, personnel turmoil

 

Following China's Fourth Plenum, Jonathan Czin and Allie Matthias discuss how the 15th Five-Year Plan represents policy continuity, confidence, and a sense of urgency to accomplish the party's goals. Czin and Matthias highlight how Beijing's projections of confidence contrast with the sweeping purges occurring throughout top leadership, especially in the PLA.

 

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Past event

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Jonathan Czin, Kari Heerman, Oliver Melton, Ilaria Mazzocco, and Andrew Polk

China’s economic priorities: the Fourth Plenum in review. On November 3, the Brookings China Center hosted a panel discussion on the outcomes of the Fourth Plenum and expectations for Beijing's 15th Five-Year Plan. Jonathan Czin moderated a conversation between Brookings's Kari Heerman, CSIS's Ilaria Mazzocco, Rhodium Group's Oliver Melton, and Trivium China's Andrew Polk.

 

Watch the recording

 

Track II Dialogue on AI and National Security

The Brookings China Center and Tsinghua University's Center for International Security Studies (CISS) convened their Track II Dialogue on Artificial Intelligence and National Security mid-November in Dubai.

 

As part of this effort, dialogue participants Melanie Sisson, Colin Kahl, Sun Chenghao, and Xiao Qian explored in a written exchange possible frameworks for how the U.S. and China could mitigate the risks posed by AI-enabled military systems.

 

Read the full article here

 
Quote

"[Renewable energy is] a chance for China to, if not solve, at least strongly mitigate its energy security puzzle, and at the same time, develop a whole new set of economic growth drivers and become a world leader in technology."

 

November 15, 2025 | Kyle Chan, New York Times

 

More research and commentary

 

What does COP30 mean for China's climate action? Kyle Chan contributes to a Brookings Around the Halls on how China sees clean energy in its international priorities.

 

Upholding the status quo U.S. policy toward Taiwan. Ryan Hass argues in an op-ed for the Taipei Times that there is a robust debate in Washington over Taiwan, but Trump’s views ultimately will be decisive for how the United States approaches cross-Strait issues in the coming years.

 

The meaning behind China's "four red lines." Mary Gallagher explores in World Politics Review how China's "four red lines" are actually about U.S. support for Taiwan and explains why Beijing feels emboldened now to press on this front.

 

China-Brazil relations. Margaret Pearson analyzes with Pedro Abelin in Global Society how, despite the overall strength of China-Brazil relations, Brazilian domestic politics limits China’s influence in the country.

 

A mild reaction to South Korea's nuclear submarine plans. Yun Sun assesses for 38North why China reacted moderately to South Korea's nuclear-powered submarine plan, especially in contrast to its reaction to AUKUS.

 

Trump's surprisingly successful trip. Susan Thornton argues in East Asia Forum that Trump's trip to the Asia-Pacific region was successful. She applauds Trump’s efforts with Xi to build a more cooperative and stable U.S.-China relationship. 

 

The Nexperia chip conflict. Mary Gallagher finds in World Politics Review that the Nexperia dispute reveals how Europe's dedication to free trade has come to an end.

 

What can the U.S. learn from China's industrial policy? Kyle Chan describes China’s approach to industrial policy and innovation on CNBC's Squawk Box Asia, and argues that the U.S.-China tech competition is a marathon.

 

The Japan-China crisis. Ryan Hass explains on TaiwanPlus why Beijing reacted so strongly to Japanese President Takaichi's recent comments on Taiwan.

 

Beijing's global clean energy ambitions. On NPR's 1A podcast, Kyle Chan highlights what drove Beijing's strategy to transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy, and how China is becoming the leading source of clean energy for other countries.

 

U.S.-China trade truce. On The Economist's Drum Tower podcast, Jonathan Czin examines Xi Jinping's confidence ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting and the future implications of the U.S.-China trade negotiations.

 

China leads in affordable clean technology. Kyle Chan is interviewed for the New York Times's DealBook newsletter about China’s new role as a clean energy leader and its implications for the U.S. economy and role on the world stage.

 

About the China Center at Brookings

 

The John L. Thornton China Center develops timely, independent analysis and policy recommendations to address long-standing challenges related to U.S.-China relations and China's development.

 
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