Raising China's retirement age, U.S.-Taiwan relations, and what a U.S. and China conflict would look like.
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Brookings John L. Thornton China Center

September 4, 2024

AI glossary

Glossary of artificial intelligence terms

 

Over the past five years, the Brookings John L. Thornton China Center and the Tsinghua University Center for International Security and Strategy (Tsinghua CISS) have convened an unofficial Track-II dialogue on artificial intelligence (AI) in national security. The teams have built parallel glossaries of AI terms—one developed by U.S. experts and the other created by Chinese experts—to enable a precise understanding of each other's intended meanings when discussing the application of AI in international security and military affairs.

 

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Organizing American policy around 'peak China' is a bad bet

 

Prominent American analysts have predicted China could lash out militarily while it is at the peak of its national power. Ryan Hass warns U.S. policymakers against organizing policy around this "peak China" theory. Instead, Hass encourages efforts to right-size the competitive challenges posed by China and for America to invest in its sources of competitive advantage. National performance ultimately will be decisive in America's long-term competition with China.

 

Read in China Leadership Monitor

Could the US and China really go to war? Who would win?

 

Military strategists in the United States consider China the nation’s main military worry, with the distinct possibility of a major war occurring between the two countries in the years to come. Michael E. O’Hanlon outlines three scenarios that could lead to conflict and offers recommendations for deterring war. 

 

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Xi takes another crack at raising China's retirement age

 

Mary Gallagher analyzes China's recent voluntary retirement policy that allows citizens to choose when to retire, representing one of the first policy changes out of the Third Plenum. Gallagher highlights potential problematic aspects of this policy, highlighting that it can exacerbate existing social tensions and may be too slow to address China's demographic challenges.

 

Read in World Politics Review

 

Brookings visits Taiwan

Brookings delegation meets with Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-Lung

 Brookings delegation meets with Taiwan's Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-Lung. (Pictured above)

In August, a Brookings delegation including Suzanne Maloney, Ryan Hass, Tara Varma, Tanvi Madan, Michael Mazarr, and Jennifer Mason traveled to Taiwan for the Center for Asia Policy Studies' annual Taiwan study trip. The focus of this year's trip was Taiwan's grand strategy.

 

Upcoming event

 

A conversation on leadership with Susan Rice. On September 5, Brookings will host Ambassador Rice for the inaugural Jeffrey A. Bader Memorial Lecture. Ambassador Rice will join Ryan Hass for a fireside chat to discuss leadership lessons she has gleaned through her domestic and global work. This inaugural event launches an annual series designed to bring renowned speakers to Brookings to honor Jeffrey A. Bader's legacy.

 

New book release

Yeo-Kardon Book

Great Power Competition and Overseas Bases

Edited by Andrew Yeo and Isaac Kardon 

 

Andrew Yeo and Isaac Kardon analyze emerging dynamics of geostrategic competition for overseas military bases and base access. Their comparative framework examines how the geopolitical interests of the U.S., China, and Russia and their respective underlying force posture interact in different regions across the globe.

 

Buy the book

 

More research and commentary

 

An affirmative U.S.-Taiwan vision. Ryan Hass wrote an op-ed for the Taipei Times on how Washington and Taipei must create a shared narrative to move U.S.-Taiwan relations forward and develop the relationship further beyond January 2025.

 

China's changing Myanmar strategy. Yun Sun authored an op-ed for Nikkei Asia on how the fall of Lashio, a key town in northern Myanmar, will cause Beijing to amend its pro-regime strategy and seek to mediate ceasefire negotiations.

 

Taiwan and South Korea's views of U.S. politics. Lev Nachman, Hannah June Kim, and Wei-Ting Yen comment on survey data on views of the Biden and Trump administrations and the trustworthiness of the United States as a partner.

 

Governor Tim Walz’s history with China. Ryan Hass was quoted in the Financial Times on how U.S. vice presidential candidate Tim Walz has consistently advocated for human rights in China.

 

The global role of China's middle class. Cheng Li was quoted in the South China Morning Post stating that China's middle class benefits the world economy.

 

Jake Sullivan's Beijing visit. Yun Sun was quoted in the Washington Post on how China used U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan's visit to reinforce its stance in the hope of stability with the next administration.

 

Impact of U.S. presidential election on cross-Strait issues. Ryan Hass was interviewed by Focus Taiwan News on the upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election and how the outcome may affect U.S. foreign policy.

 

 

About the China Center at Brookings

 

The John L. Thornton China Center develops timely, independent analysis and policy recommendations to address long-standing challenges related to U.S.-China relations and China's internal development.

 
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