This edition was written by Tara Watson and Jonathon Zars.
💡 New from us: The immigration landscape, future of student loan income‑driven repayment plans, and academic preparation’s influence on college enrollment disparities.
This April's analysis of the second Trump Administration's first 100 days reveals significant shifts in immigration policy. Border encounters have plummeted as virtually all asylum pathways have closed, while interior enforcement has expanded into previously restricted spaces. Despite erosion of due process, deportation numbers remain comparable to previous administrations—likely lower than Obama-era levels. New enforcement tactics include misusing the Social Security Administration's death master file by adding living immigrants. Meanwhile, increased deportations are impacting the child welfare system, which is ill-equipped to handle the potential influx of U.S.-born children with undocumented parents—approximately 5.62 million children live with at least one undocumented household member, and 2.66 million have only undocumented parents at home. Overall, the current administration is striking a harsh anti-immigrant posture aimed at reducing immigrant numbers regardless of legal status or criminal history, while creating fear and uncertainty among those who remain.
Sarah Reber and Sarah Turner examine the future of income-driven repayment (IDR) amid ongoing litigation challenging Biden's SAVE plan. Their analysis covers how IDR plans have evolved and become increasingly more generous. With IDR now covering 60% of federal student loans, the current legal uncertainty threatens borrower access to affordable repayment options and raises questions about forgiveness authority. This moment presents an opportunity for Congress to simplify an overly complex system, though successful reform will require careful coordination between the Department of Education, loan servicers, and borrowers.
Sarah Reber, Simran Kalkat, and Gabriela Goodman's new research demonstrates that disparities in college enrollment—particularly those based on race and gender—are partially driven by differences in academic preparation. Addressing these disparities will require tackling educational inequities both within schools and in the broader social environment. College education remains one of the most reliable paths to economic mobility.
📖 What we’re reading
The safety net overall has grown stronger and resulted in deep poverty reduction since 1970. Robert Greenstein examines in-depth the major shifts in the U.S. safety net since 1970. He finds that while many specific programs have shrunk, overall resources have improved child well-being, expanded health care coverage, and reduced poverty. He dispels the myth that current programs are the root of the growing federal fiscal imbalance and addresses work-requirements. Greenstein concludes the paper with two basic principles for policymakers: do no harm to critical safety net programs like Medicaid and SNAP and seek out incremental improvements in many of the remaining safety net gaps.
Is the child mental health crisis really new?Janet Currie, the president of the American Economic Association, laid out three myths about the child mental health crisis in her most recent address. She notes that this crisis is anything but new, with improved diagnoses partially responsible for some worsening indicators. Currie argues that relying on youth suicide as the primary indicator of mental health over-simplifies the problem. Investments in children’s mental health can have a lasting positive impact, but it is important to follow the evidence when it comes to prenatal, early childhood, and adolescent investments. Overall, the child mental health crisis imposes dramatic costs on families and communities, but work continues to be done to understand the underlying issues at play that will help the U.S. overcome this challenge.
New occupational licensing for teachers may do more harm than good. States increasingly require more licensing for public school teachers. Bobby Chung and Jian Zou show that this trend may reduce the supply of teachers and does little to improve student test scores. The rollout of educative Teacher Performance Assessment (edTPA) from 2014-2018 likely reduced graduation from teacher prep programs by more than 10 percent, exacerbating workforce shortages. The reduction in teacher supply is concentrated in less selective and minority-concentrated universities. But the authors find no evidence that edTPA improved student test performance.
📊 Top chart: The state of immigration during the second Trump administration
The environment at the border has dramatically shifted. Tara Watson and Jonathon Zars show that recent actions taken by this administration have virtually eliminated all opportunities for immigrants to enter the U.S. seeking asylum. Even if the current immigration stance is short-lived, the impacts may have longer-term consequences that stymie economic growth and jeopardize resources like the Social Security Trust Fund.
About the Center for Economic Security and Opportunity at Brookings
The Center for Economic Security and Opportunity (CESO) produces data-driven, nonpartisan analysis to address the United States’ most challenging social policy questions. In a noisy and polarized world, the Center is a trustworthy source for the information and tools policymakers need to build an economy that works for everyone.
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