Q&A with Anand Menon
It has been over four months since the Labour Party won snap elections in the United Kingdom this July, ending 14 years of Conservative rule. We spoke with CUSE's new Nonresident Senior Fellow Anand Menon about the new government and what Donald Trump’s election to a second term could mean for Britain's relations with the United States and the European Union.
Last month, you wrote that British Prime Minister Keir Starmer's government had struggled to implement its agenda in its first 100 days. How do you evaluate the government’s progress and political standing at this point and its prospects going forward?
I think any assessment must start from two initial observations. First, that the U.K. faces a range of problems that have dogged us for years, ranging from significant fiscal constraints to crumbling public services. Second, that, despite the enormous parliamentary majority it secured in the election in July, the government was elected on the back of a historically low vote share, and its success was more a function of dissatisfaction with the Tories than of enthusiasm for Labour.
Consequently, it is not wholly surprising that there are few signs of practical improvement as yet and that Labour are now actually behind the Conservatives in some polls. The recent budget, a gamble that increased investment in public services funded by borrowing and higher taxes, will lead to a noticeable improvement. Ask me again in three years and I’ll be able to give you a more interesting assessment of where we have got to!
On November 5, Donald Trump won re-election as president of the United States. How will a second Trump presidency affect U.S.-U.K. relations, especially given London’s strong support for Ukraine?
What is clear is that, for all the enormous ideological differences between Keir Starmer’s government and the new administration, the former have no intention of letting these impede continued close relations. Less clear is what Mr. Trump intends to do. We in the U.K. cling to the idea that his Scottish heritage and his clear love of our royal family will count for something when he decides how to deal with U.S. allies and possibly even see us exempted from potentially damaging tariffs. The U.K. government also hopes that it can persuade the new president to maintain U.S. support for Ukraine.
Following Trump's victory, do you expect major changes in U.K.-EU relations?
When it comes to the EU, the new U.K. government is keen to be seen to be developing close relations with both Brussels and member states, even though its practical ambitions for what Starmer terms his “reset” are strikingly limited. Still, Trump might confront the U.K. with some difficult choices. What if, for instance, he decides to exempt the U.K. from his tariffs, should London agree to a deal allowing U.S. agricultural products to access the U.K. market? The U.S. is the largest market for U.K. goods exports, and our goods exports are already suffering as a result of Brexit.
Yet such a deal with Trump would make any rapprochement with the EU harder and rule out the kind of “veterinary agreement“ (the name notwithstanding, this is a deal about importing meat and plant-based foodstuffs from or to the EU) the Labour Party said it wanted in its manifesto. Equally, continued close security cooperation with the U.S. might come at the expense of closer collaboration with the EU. Yet the latter is increasingly necessary given the fact that the U.S. is likely, no matter who is in the White House, to increasingly turn away from Europe and towards Asia, and, consequently, to expect Europe to take greater responsibility for its own security. So, Trump could force the U.K. to make some very hard choices between Europe and the U.S., between security and economics, and between the long and short term.
