The axis of resistance, changing tides in the Myanmar Civil War, and the Houthis' attacks in the Red Sea.
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Brookings Foreign Policy

January 19, 2024

Nonstate armed actors and illicit economies in 2024

Nonstate armed actors and illicit economies in 2024

 

This annual series provides a comprehensive “briefing book” on some of the key issues the U.S. and other governments should consider in devising responses to conflicts, nonstate armed actors, and illicit economies in the United States and around the world.

 

View the series | Read the scene setter from Vanda Felbab-Brown

The impact of Taiwan’s election in 2024 and beyond

 

Richard C. Bush, Ryan Hass, Patricia M. Kim, Adam P. Liff, Syaru Shirley Lin, Melanie W. Sisson, and Susan A. Thornton weigh in on what the Taiwan election results mean for the island, cross-Strait relations, and the U.S.-China-Taiwan triangle in 2024 and beyond.

 

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Separately, Syaru Shirley Lin wrote an op-ed in the New York Times about why Taiwan’s elections have her worried about the island's future.

An inflection point for the Houthis

 

While regional and international actors will seek to avoid a re-escalation of hostilities in Yemen, the Houthis’ actions in the Red Sea are eroding the prospects of international support for Yemen’s peace process and economic recovery, Allison Minor writes.

 

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Quote

 

“The Houthis are a very independent actor, they’re not like Hezbollah [in Lebanon]. They are a home-grown independent actor. But the more they are attacked, they will naturally go to the Iranians for more and more help.”

 

January 16, 2024 | Bruce Riedel, The Hill

 
International affairs
 

Axis of resistance. Bruce Riedel outlines the growing risk that the Israel-Hamas conflict will expand further beyond Gaza and the Red Sea into a regional war including Lebanon.

 

Cracking down on extremist Israeli settlers. Washington needs to use the same mechanisms used to fight Palestinian terrorism with violent Israeli settler groups attacking Palestinian civilians in the West Bank, Jeffrey Feltman argues.

 

Déjà vu in Libya. The trajectory of armed movements in Libya leaves the predatory ruling class and its associated armed groups in place. This does not bode well for cultivating a few green shoots of democracy in the country, Stephanie Williams emphasizes.

 

Changing tides of the Myanmar civil war? Operation 1027 stimulated unprecedented coordination and unity among the resistance forces fighting Myanmar's Military Junta, unleashing important momentum to bring along future changes in Myanmar, Yun Sun argues.

 

Ethiopia’s New Year’s ledger. A controversial new port and domestic challenges leave the country vulnerable to internal insurgencies, Jeffrey Feltman notes.

 

AI boom. Valerie Wirtschafter discusses how policymakers and law enforcement can stem malicious uses of generative artificial intelligence (AI) by nonstate armed actors.

 

The Israel-Gaza crisis. Peace between Israelis and Palestinians remains possible, but getting there will require both sides—and the United States—to be realistic about what is achievable now, Natan Sachs contends in an article for Foreign Affairs.

 
Join us for a webinar
 

Analyzing Israel’s strategy in Gaza

Wednesday, January 24, 2024, 10:30 AM - 11:30 AM EST

 

South Korean foreign policy in 2024

Friday, January 26, 2024, 9:00 AM - 10:00 AM EST

 
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