March 3, 2025

2019-10-11T205713Z_1436361292_RC1F422FAB50_RTRMADP_3_USA-TRADE-CHINA-1776x1259-1

Trump, Xi, and the false hope of a grand bargain

There is not a sweeping deal available that could resolve U.S.-China tensions, Patricia Kim argues. She advises the Trump administration to concentrate on specific, concrete issues to advance American interests rather than chase an elusive "grand bargain" with China.

How will the Biden administration's China policy be remembered?

President Joe Biden strengthened alliances, invested in domestic industry, and imposed technology export controls to counter China’s rise, but he struggled to articulate a compelling narrative that could secure public support for his vision of competition with China, according to Ryan Hass. Hass credits Biden’s successes on the merits but argues that Biden’s failure in storytelling was a weakness that will limit the enduring influence of Biden’s approach.

Thoughts on the political demise of Miao Hua

Xi Jinping’s ongoing military purges reflect his deep concern over corruption in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and his need for absolute loyalty as he prepares for potential conflicts, but they also expose persistent vulnerabilities in his control over the military, according to Jon Czin. Czin contextualizes how the removal of Admiral Miao Hua fits into Xi’s broader anti-corruption campaign, reinforcing both the uncertainty within the PLA and the paradox of a modernizing yet corrupt military.

What does the TikTok saga reveal about China-US relations?

As part of the Global China "Lost in translation: Decoding Chinese strategic narratives" series, Sun Chenghao and Chen Siyao explain Chinese perspectives on America's TikTok ban. They argue that the ban is emblematic of China's broader concerns with America's intentions toward China.

Welcoming John Culver to the China Center

John Culver is a nonresident senior fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings. Prior to retiring from the Central Intelligence Agency in 2020, he served as an analyst and manager on China, with a particular focus on the People’s Liberation Army. From 2015 to 2018, Culver served as national intelligence officer for East Asia (NIO-EA). He was a founding member of the CIA’s Senior Analytic Service, was in the Senior Intelligence Service, and was a recipient of the CIA’s Distinguished Career Intelligence Medal, and the William L. Langer Award for extraordinary achievement in the CIA’s analytic mission.

As NIO-EA, Culver drove the intelligence community’s support to top policymakers during a major policy shift on East Asian issues and managed extensive relationships inside and outside government.

Past event

Ryan Hass, Rep. John Moolenaar, Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, and Patricia Kim

How will Congress approach US-China relations? A conversation with Reps. John Moolenaar and Raja Krishnamoorthi. On February 25, the Brookings China Center hosted a fireside chat on Congress's priorities for bolstering America's position in its competition with China. Ryan Hass and Patricia Kim moderated the conversation between Chairman John Moolenaar (R-MI) and Ranking Member Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL) of the House Select Committee on the Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party.

More research and commentary

China's strategy for Trump's second term. Yun Sun wrote an article for Foreign Affairs on how Beijing plans to counter Trump's volatility by fortifying its domestic economy, strengthening regional ties, and expanding cooperation with Global South countries.

Assessing the PLA's readiness for 2027. John Culver wrote an article for the Lowy Institute on the rapid modernization of the PLA and the remaining steps needed to accomplish Xi's goal of PLA readiness to seize Taiwan by 2027.

President Lai's key challenges. Ryan Hass wrote a commentary on how President Lai must navigate domestic political gridlock, growing Chinese coercion, and an uncertain global environment in the year ahead.

Taiwan in Trump's foreign policy agenda. Ryan Hass wrote a column for Taipei Times on Trump's governing ethos and its implications for Taiwan.

The risks of overestimating China. Margaret Pearson wrote an essay for the Institute for America, China, and the Future of Global Affairs at John Hopkins SAIS on how U.S. policy misjudges China's economic control, leading to over-securitization and ineffective restrictions.

Navigating China's dominance in clean energy. Mary Gallagher wrote an essay for the Institute for America, China, and the Future of Global Affairs at John Hopkins SAIS on how the U.S. must balance economic security with pragmatism by allowing strategic Chinese investment in EV and battery production.

Rightsizing the threat of foreign influence. Diana Fu wrote an essay for the Institute for America, China, and the Future of Global Affairs at John Hopkins SAIS on the importance of distinguishing between foreign influence and coercive foreign interference.

Trump pushes Europe toward China. Mary Gallagher wrote a column for World Politics Review on how Trump and Vance's harsh rhetoric on Europe's politics and security could alienate U.S. allies, making China’s offer of stability and economic cooperation more appealing despite its risks.

Future of AI governance. Lan Xue co-authored a policy memo for the Oxford Martin School AI Governance Initiative on the importance of a structured yet flexible governance model for AI safety concerns.

Expanding Chinese influence after the takedown of USAID. Mary Gallagher wrote a column for World Politics Review arguing that China does not have to step up its aid to expand its global influence from U.S. retrenchment.

China analyst on cross-Strait relations. Ryan Hass interviewed Kerry Brown for the Taiwan-U.S. Quarterly Analysis series on his perspectives on a future conflict in the Taiwan Strait and whether 2027 will be a harbinger for cross-Strait relations.

About the China Center at Brookings

The John L. Thornton China Center develops timely, independent analysis and policy recommendations to address long-standing challenges related to U.S.-China relations and China's development.