Here's the strategy to prevent China from taking Taiwan

Michael O'Hanlon and David Ochmanek offer recommendations for Washington to bolster deterrence against a possible Chinese attack on Taiwan.

Read in The Hill

US-China technology competition

Ryan Hass, Patricia M. Kim, and Emilie Kimball, the co-leads of the Brookings Foreign Policy project "Global China: Assessing China’s Growing Role in the World," convened 10 Brookings scholars for a written exchange on the role of technology in U.S.-China competition.

ASEAN running out of time to recast role as buffer in US-China great power competition

Shuxian Luo argues that ASEAN needs to maintain its relevance by repositioning itself between the United States and China as a bridge and a geopolitical buffer. "ASEAN no longer enjoys the luxury of time in establishing itself as an effective geostrategic buffer... It needs to be honest about this and get right to the most difficult core issue," writes Luo.

More research and commentary

Critical issues confronting China. During a lecture hosted by the Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies at Harvard University, Cheng Li discussed the possible personnel changes at the upcoming 20th Party Congress.

China's payments u-turn: Government over technology. Aaron Klein writes, "What is going on in Chinese payments is a fascinating battle of private sector innovation versus government control and big-tech versus big-banks, putting the usually staid and boring world of payment systems into the spotlight allowing for examination of broader narratives about the future of China and how it is playing the global economic game."

Explaining China's escalation and deescalation in maritime disputes. In a research article for Asian Security, Shuxian Luo argues that when deciding whether to escalate, Chinese decision makers usually weigh and make a trade-off between their anticipated domestic political costs should they back down and their potential international costs should they take an escalatory stance.

FOCAC 2021: China's retrenchment from Africa? Yun Sun points out that during the 8th Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), China significantly scaled back its planned activities and the substance of the activities in Africa, most notably in the areas of agricultural assistance, climate and environment, health, peace and security.

Upcoming webinar

Toward Xi's third term: China's 20th Party Congress and beyond. On Thursday, January 20, the John L. Thornton China Center will host two panel discussions featuring top China scholars, who will discuss the evolution of norms in Chinese elite politics, predictions of the outcomes of the 20th Party Congress, and what the future holds for Xi Jinping.

Register here

In the news

Summit for Democracy. Leading up to the Summit for Democracy, Ryan Hass told The Hill that if America attempts to airbrush its own performance and prod other countries to improve theirs, its efforts will be hollow. "I think it's absolutely essential that President Biden acknowledge America's own imperfections to have credibility to address these problems," said Hass.

Congressional hostility toward China. During the South China Morning Post's annual China Conference, Susan Thornton discussed the domestic tensions that are preventing deeper cooperation between the United States and China. "Nobody wants a crisis right now, but there are certain dynamics internally in both countries that, unfortunately, probably find a bit of tension and instability in the relationship useful," said Thornton.

About the China Center

The John L. Thornton China Center develops timely, independent analysis and policy recommendations to help U.S. and Chinese leaders address key long-term challenges, both in terms of U.S.-China relations and China's internal development.