Q&A with Anand Menon
June 23 marks the 10th anniversary of Brexit, the United Kingdom’s vote to leave the European Union. Its effects continue to reverberate across British politics—not least in the fact that the U.K. has since cycled through six prime ministers. We spoke with CUSE nonresident fellow Anand Menon about where British politics stand now, the Labour Party’s waning popularity, and Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s future.
After a poor performance in local elections last month, Keir Starmer and the Labour Party are facing an uphill battle to maintain control of the government. What explains the sharp decline in support for the Labour government less than two years after a landslide victory in 2024?
Remember that the 2024 landslide flattered to deceive. Labour secured a massive majority in parliament. But it did so with a historically low share of the vote (less than 34%). The landslide was therefore less secure than it might have appeared—my colleague Rob Ford of the University of Manchester has spoken of Labour creating an electoral “Jenga tower.”
That said, the decline in support that Labour has suffered has been unprecedented. That is partly down to the government’s own failings: its lack of a clear message, the numerous policy U-turns it has been forced into, the scandals (initially over things like Starmer having accepted free Taylor Swift tickets, more recently over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to Washington despite his links to Jeffrey Epstein).
Yet the troubles of Starmer’s government cannot be attributed solely to its record in office. The sheer level of its unpopularity speaks to a deeper and longer-term discontent. The country has experienced almost 20 years of weak economic growth and stagnating real wages. In this period, trust in politics has declined, as has support for the two traditional parties of government. In this sense, Starmer is being held responsible not only for his own failures but for two decades during which governments have failed to deliver.
Reform UK and the Green Party both made notable gains in the recent local elections. How significant is their rise and what does it reveal about shifting voter priorities and dissatisfaction with the major parties? How seriously should we take the Restore Britain party, which is positioning itself to the right of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK?
Reform can now credibly portray itself as the leading party of the right. Support for these parties is partly issue-based—Gaza has driven many Labour voters to the Greens, while Reform UK voters tend to think immigration is the most important issue facing the country. It also reflects a broader “anti-politics” sentiment stemming from the failure of mainstream parties to generate economic growth.
But both the Greens and Reform UK will face significant challenges if they want to build on their success in recent local elections in a national election. They will need to professionalize, including in terms of candidate selection (a number of candidates have had to stand down, not least because of offensive social media posts). Success will bring challenges of its own, as they will have to maintain larger and more diverse voter coalitions and appeal to more moderate voters, which might cause some problems with more militant members.
Reform UK will also have to cope with a challenge from its right in the form of the far-right party Restore Britain. While it is currently only polling between 7% and 9%, it could become a real thorn in Farage’s side, potentially preventing him from beating the Labour Party at the special election on June 18 in Makerfield, in which Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham—seen by many as Starmer’s presumptive heir—is standing for parliament.
Starmer is facing criticism from within his own party, with figures such as Andy Burnham gaining attention as potential alternatives. What scenarios appear most plausible for Starmer’s leadership and for Labour’s durability in government?
Starmer’s future will likely hinge on the outcome of this special election in Makerfield. No formal leadership challenge has been launched against him as yet, but senior colleagues—notably the former Health Secretary Wes Streeting—have been openly critical of his leadership. Should Burnham win the election, most people expect him to launch a challenge to the prime minister and win. He is the most popular Labour figure among both the public and party members, who will ultimately select the next prime minister.
A more interesting question is what happens if Burnham loses. Starmer has said he has no intention of standing aside, and it then becomes a question of who has enough support among MPs to get the 81 signatures necessary to become a contender. It is conceivable that no one will stand, and that Starmer will cling on as a very weakened figure.
The most likely scenario, however, is that either Burnham or another senior figure launches a challenge and Starmer is removed from office. But what happens then is far from clear. We know relatively little about the platforms of the other candidates. As mayor, Burnham has not had to spell out his foreign policy priorities, and while campaigning in Makerfield, he is being careful to stress local rather than national issues. There is thus likely to be a significant amount of uncertainty over the next few months, but with the expectation being that the U.K. will have a new prime minister, probably around the time of the Labour Party conference at the end of September.
